Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,907 total articles
Market liquidity in recent months appears driven more by activity in derivatives markets and speculative short-volatility strategies than by Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion, according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report. While the Fed injected massive liquidity at the start of the COVID-19 crisis and expanded its balance sheet through 2022, the …
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said she is open to one or two more interest rate reductions to address growing strains in the labor market. While she backed the Fed's recent decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, Daly warned that weakening job market signals - including difficulty for recent graduates and real wa…
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said she is open to one or two interest rate cuts to address strains in the labor market, noting workers are facing shrinking real wages and fewer job opportunities. Daly supported the recent decision to hold the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% but said there was a case for trimming policy further if inf…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told senators that President Donald Trump was speaking in jest when he suggested he might sue his Federal Reserve chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, if interest rates are not cut. Bessent made the clarification during questioning at a Senate Banking Committee hearing and cited a prior CNBC interview in which he said t…
A Reuters survey of economists projects an acceleration in Mexico's January inflation, with headline inflation seen at 3.82% year-on-year and core inflation at 4.49%. Analysts attribute the rise to higher food costs after tax changes and other fiscal measures. The central bank paused its easing cycle and adjusted its inflation outlook and target ti…
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson expressed cautious optimism about the U.S. economic outlook for 2026, expecting growth to remain slightly above trend, the labor market to stabilize, and inflation to resume its descent toward the Fed’s 2% target. Speaking at a Brookings Institution event, Jefferson described the current policy stance as …
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in a LinkedIn post that firms are displaying cautious optimism driven by growth, consumer spending and productivity gains, while households appear more uncertain about the outlook. She highlighted survey evidence of weaker job expectations among workers, noted inflation remains above the Federal Open Marke…
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 57.3 in early February from a revised 56.4 in January, marking a modest improvement. Short-term inflation expectations eased to 3.5% while five-year expectations inched up to 3.4%. Survey respondents continue to voice concerns about high prices and job security despite the modest uptick …
Brazil's Finance Ministry has flagged gaps in banking rules that allow suspects to shield assets in pooled and escrow accounts, urging the central bank to tighten regulation after recent police operations and internal reviews revealed continued vulnerabilities. Authorities say existing rule changes only reduce, but do not eliminate, the risk to ass…
The European Union will propose mandating secure, tamper-resistant semiconductors in drone systems as part of a broader strategy to scale civilian and defense drone capabilities, improve resilience and coordinate member-state responses. The plan, expected next week, includes measures to accelerate a drone alliance with Ukraine, boost production, an…
The European Central Bank is preparing to widen access and relax terms for its euro repurchase agreement facility, known as Eurep, enabling central banks beyond the euro area to obtain emergency euro funding on more favourable conditions. The move is presented as part of a broader European strategy to bolster the single currency's international rol…
A Barclays survey of 342 investors managing $7.8 trillion indicates a shift away from U.S.-based hedge funds for the first time since 2023. Respondents said they plan to cut exposure to U.S. hedge funds by about 5% while boosting allocations to managers in Asia and Europe. Interest in Asia-Pacific and European managers has risen sharply, fees peake…
UBS has raised its projection for Eurozone growth in 2026 to 1.3% from an earlier estimate, responding to a stronger GDP outturn in 2025. The bank points to unexpectedly resilient fourth-quarter momentum, driven in part by domestic demand, and expects fiscal stimulus for defence and infrastructure - notably in Germany - to provide a further boost t…
Canada’s January labour report showed a net drop in employment of 24,800 positions even as the unemployment rate fell to 6.5%. The fall in participation - concentrated in Ontario - and a large reduction in part-time work contrasted with gains in full-time jobs and pockets of sectoral strength, producing ambiguous signals for the Bank of Canada.
European Central Bank policymaker Gabriel Makhlouf identified two primary risks to the euro zone outlook: a slowing of economic growth and the possibility that inflation remains below the ECB’s 2% target in a more persistent way. He noted that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored at 2% but said wage growth trends will be watched closely…
A Reuters poll of leading brokerages finds broad optimism for U.S. equities in 2026, with the S&P 500 consensus target clustered between roughly 7,100 and 8,100, driven by continued investor interest in artificial intelligence-linked stocks and expectations of Federal Reserve easing. At the same time, analysts caution that inflation, lofty valuatio…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled an initiative designed to encourage greater investment from U.S. allies and partners while retaining existing national security safeguards. As chair of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), Bessent said the move is part of the administration's America First Investment Policy and …
Chery has reiterated that it intends to commence vehicle production at its Barcelona factory this year, saying operations will begin "as soon as possible," even as the company acknowledges a further slip of output into 2026 following an earlier postponement to the fourth quarter of 2025. The plant, a joint venture with Spanish carmaker Ebro located…
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill warned that the central bank should not become overly reassured by an anticipated fall in headline inflation to around 2% in April driven by lower regulated energy prices. Speaking to businesses after the Bank's February rate decision, Pill stressed the need for monetary policy to remain vigilant against per…
Bank of America has updated its outlook for European Central Bank policy, now anticipating two 25 basis point reductions in March and June 2027. The shift reflects the bank's assessment that cuts will come only after visible slowing in German growth driven by fiscal developments and an extended period of inflation, especially core inflation, below …
A Bank of England Market Participants Survey finds investors anticipate the central bank will reduce its Bank Rate from 3.75% to 3.0% by the March 2027 meeting. The survey, conducted Jan. 21-23 with 92 respondents, also left the median forecast for 12-month quantitative tightening unchanged at 50 billion pounds and lifted the 10-year gilt year-end …
Carlyle Group reported a rise in fourth-quarter distributable earnings, supported by realized gains at its private-equity unit and strength across its global credit and secondaries businesses. Distributable earnings rose to $436 million, or $1.01 per share, while net realized performance revenue increased to $123 million. Fee-related earnings edged…
A sharp AI-fueled correction within large-cap technology, particularly software stocks, has unsettled equity markets and erased the S&P 500's gains for 2026. Investors are watching whether a broader rotation into energy, consumer staples and industrials can offset drag from tech as a packed calendar of labor and inflation reports could reshape expe…
Elon Musk told the Dwarkesh Podcast that power generation is becoming the primary constraint on scaling artificial intelligence, and he proposed orbital solar arrays and space-based data centers as a solution. Musk said SpaceX's low-cost, high-capacity launch capabilities and mass production of space solar arrays could eventually make space the che…
UBS interprets the Bank of England's decision to hold the policy rate at 3.75% and the narrow 5-4 Monetary Policy Committee vote as a clear shift toward easier policy. A steeper-than-expected downgrade to the BoE's inflation forecast, plus evidence of slowing wage and price dynamics, underpins UBS's call for a 25 basis point cut in March and anothe…
