Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,188 total articles
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields does not appear to reflect heightened inflation expectations or intensified concerns over government deficits. He described current borrowing costs as within a reasonable range and highlighted questions about supply-demand balances in the …
The U.S. Department of Defense has begun testing a range of artificial intelligence models with 25 designated power users as it seeks replacements for Anthropic PBC's Claude following a supply-chain risk designation. The move comes after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth flagged Anthropic over its stance on technology guardrails and initiated a six-mo…
Pacific Investment Management Co.'s chief investment officer Daniel Ivascyn warned that if long-dated inflation expectations become meaningfully unanchored, major central banks including the Federal Reserve may need to tighten monetary policy even amid economic weakness. The dynamics have already pushed breakeven inflation measures and long-term Tr…
President Donald Trump delayed a planned signing ceremony for an executive order on artificial intelligence, saying he objected to parts of the directive and did not want to risk undermining the United States' competitive advantage in AI. He praised the benefits of AI while expressing concern that the order 'could have been a blocker.'
A sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields has prompted investors in mortgage-backed securities to sell government debt to hedge the extended duration of their portfolios. The resulting convexity hedging has likely heightened this week's Treasury selloff and contributed to the most pronounced rise in rates in roughly a year, with the 10-year yield climbi…
Modal Labs closed a $355 million financing round that places the AI infrastructure startup at a $4.65 billion valuation. The company, which helps AI firms secure inference compute and offers a sandbox for testing AI-generated code, has seen annualized revenue jump to about $300 million amid a surge in AI-driven coding and a simultaneous squeeze in …
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said the Fed paused at its last meeting to gather more information and will base future rate decisions on how households and firms react to ongoing shocks - including high oil prices and the spread of AI. Barkin cautioned that developments affecting employment and inflation could prompt a dif…
Argentina's central bank has moderated the pace of daily dollar purchases despite accumulating roughly $3 billion in gross reserves so far this year. Authorities are balancing reserve targets agreed with the International Monetary Fund against the risk that buying dollars will expand peso liquidity and rekindle inflation. Weak genuine demand for pe…
JPMorgan has begun deploying artificial intelligence tools across its global investment banking division, according to its Asia Pacific investment banking chief. The bank is among a group allowed to use Anthropic's Mythos model under Project Glasswing. JPMorgan executives say AI is helping synthesize information and speed the production of client m…
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said the Fed's recent pause in raising interest rates allowed policymakers time to collect data on labor markets and inflation amid a series of disruptive developments. He warned that whether the central bank can 'look through' current high inflation or will need to tighten policy depends on how cons…
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's late-April policy meeting reveal rising anxiety among staff and some policymakers about financial-market strains. Officials discussed elevated asset valuations, stresses tied to borrowing by hedge funds and private credit opacity, and considered operational refinements to liquidity facilities as Kevin Warsh prepar…
Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.51% in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, up from 6.36% the prior week. The 15-year fixed rate increased to 5.85% from 5.71% the previous week. Freddie Mac’s chief economist advised prospective buyers to shop around for mortgage quotes to potentially reduce costs.
The U.S. Department of Justice this week swore in the largest single class of immigration judges in the agency’s history, adding 77 permanent judges and five temporary judges to the Executive Office for Immigration Review. The moves come as the administration replaces dozens of judges who have left and emphasizes reducing a multi-million-case backl…
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor said maintaining the Bank's 3.75% policy rate on an extended hold is appropriate given weakening domestic activity and heightened recession risks tied to the Middle East conflict. He argued that further tightening would be warranted only under a worst-case Iran scenario and downplayed the…
An Ankara appeals court has invalidated the results of the Republican People’s Party's 2023 congress, nullifying Ozgur Ozel's election as chairman and removing the head of Turkey's main opposition. The decision follows a separate crackdown that has seen dozens of CHP figures detained since municipal election wins in 2024, and it coincided with a ro…
Iran's ambassador to France says Tehran and Muscat are discussing a plan to institute a permanent payment system for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal would charge ships fees to fund navigation management, security provision and pollution prevention, with Iran framing the measure as a contribution requirement for beneficiaries o…
Bond markets are pricing material differences across U.S. private-credit lenders, with smaller business development companies (BDCs) carrying significantly wider option-adjusted spreads (OAS) than larger peers. An analysis of dozens of issuers and hundreds of bonds finds marked dispersion in yield demanded by investors, reflecting concerns about po…
Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor told an MNI event that the current economic backdrop reduces the likelihood that higher energy costs from the Iran war will trigger persistent, economy-wide inflation - compared with the risk seen after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. He cautioned that the picture is uncertain, that markets have already ti…
The International Monetary Fund warned that France is exposed to rising public finance risks as progress on deficit reduction has weakened and public debt remains high. While the budget deficit narrowed to 5.1% of GDP in 2025, the IMF said further consolidation is advancing more slowly than expected and faces significant implementation risks. The f…
Britain's finance minister announced a package of temporary measures intended to ease household spending over the school summer holidays and to help industries affected by higher energy costs linked to recent strikes on Iran. The steps include a summer cut in sales tax for some tourist attractions, free bus travel for children under 15 in August, s…
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits edged down last week, signaling continued firmness in the US labor market even as Federal Reserve policymakers weigh inflationary pressures linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The weekly data falls within the period used to construct May payroll estimates and shows ongoing stability in hirin…
Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled a set of temporary measures designed to reduce living costs for UK families, including a cut in VAT for a range of summer leisure activities and children’s meals, freezes and cuts to fuel-related levies, and targeted industry support funds. The package is financed in part through tax changes aimed at foreign branch…
The pound traded flat against the dollar at $1.3437 and rose 0.13% versus the euro after S&P Global’s preliminary UK Composite PMI for May dropped to 48.5, signaling the most widespread contraction in activity in over a year. The decline follows softer-than-expected inflation and comes amid disruptions tied to the Iran war and the closure of the St…
A set of May indicators and official forecasts show the economic impact of higher energy costs tied to the Iran conflict is deepening across Europe. Private-sector activity in the euro area contracted at its sharpest rate in over two-and-a-half years, input-price inflation hit a three-and-a-half year high, and the European Commission has trimmed gr…
The European Commission has revised its projection for eurozone GDP growth in 2026 down to 0.9% from an earlier 1.2%, citing an energy shock tied to the Iran war and continued inflationary pressure. Growth is seen slowing from 1.3% in 2025, with a modest rebound to 1.2% expected in 2027. Officials warn that a more adverse energy-price path could su…
