Consumer prices in Brazil increased 0.41% in the month to mid-June, a pace slightly under the 0.44% that economists had forecast, according to data released by the national statistics agency IBGE.
On a 12-month basis the inflation rate accelerated to 4.80% from 4.64% in the prior period. That annual figure remains above the central bank's 3% target, which carries an allowable tolerance of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
IBGE's breakdown showed that food and beverages costs rose 0.74% over the month, while housing-related prices increased 0.72%. Together those two categories constituted roughly two-thirds of the month's overall price rise. The agency noted that both categories expanded at a slower rate than in May.
Separately, the central bank published updated inflation projections on the same day. Those forecasts indicate that price growth is expected to return to the target by 2028. However, the bank's projections show a worsening outlook through 2027, a trajectory it attributed to sustained economic activity.
The figures present a mixed signal: monthly inflation undershot expectations, yet the 12-month rate continued to climb and remains above the policy target range. The central bank's updated path - with improvement only by 2028 and a deterioration through 2027 - frames the near-term inflation outlook as still challenged by ongoing demand conditions.
Data highlights
- Monthly consumer price increase: 0.41% for the period to mid-June.
- Economists' consensus forecast: 0.44% for the same month.
- 12-month inflation: 4.80%, up from 4.64% in the previous reading.
- Key contributors: food and beverages (+0.74%) and housing (+0.72%), together accounting for about two-thirds of the monthly rise.
- Central bank forecast: inflation expected to reach the target by 2028, with a worsening trajectory through 2027 linked to sustained economic activity.
These figures will inform monetary policy deliberations and market expectations as authorities weigh the path back to the inflation objective. For now, consumer prices show modest monthly moderation versus forecasts even as the annual rate remains elevated and central bank projections point to a drawn-out return to target.