Arcmont Asset Management Chief Executive Officer Anthony Fobel said Monday at the SuperReturn annual private capital gathering in Berlin that private credit portfolios remain fundamentally healthy, with low default rates persisting even as some retail investors have sought withdrawals.
Addressing conference attendees, Fobel raised doubts about efforts to expand private credit access to retail clients, referring to the strategy as an attempt to sell "essentially an illiquid asset class." He argued that the on-the-ground performance data he and peers review does not line up with much of the press coverage.
"What we are seeing indeed is almost directly the opposite of what we're reading in the press," Fobel said. "In fact what you're actually seeing is contrary to there actually being any kind of negative performance in portfolios."
The comments came after a wave of redemption requests moved from U.S. private credit vehicles into Europe last week. In one notable example, Swiss private equity firm Partners Group Holding AG imposed a cap of 5% on withdrawals from one of its funds.
Fobel said he has been in conversations with executives at other private credit firms and with institutional investors who have access to underlying portfolio performance, and he reiterated his view that the asset class is largely supported by institutional capital. He used that point to question whether broadening the investor base to include retail clients is sensible for what he described as an illiquid product.
The private credit market is currently estimated at $1.8 trillion. Fobel forecast that the sector could grow to reach 4 trillion ($4.6 trillion) by 2030, a projection he discussed at the conference.
Delegates at the SuperReturn event also flagged geopolitical risk as an important variable for the sector's outlook. An app-based poll of conference participants showed that an end to tensions in the Middle East would be seen as the principal catalyst for forward momentum in private credit.
The recent redemption activity followed concerns about how artificial intelligence could affect private credit portfolios' software holdings, a source of investor unease that has coincided with the withdrawal requests.
Fobel reiterated that private credit remains "overwhelmingly institutionally backed," underlining that much of the current investor base consists of institutional rather than retail capital.
Summary
At the SuperReturn conference in Berlin, Arcmont CEO Anthony Fobel said private credit portfolios show low default rates and do not exhibit the negative performance portrayed in some media reports. He questioned moves to retailize an illiquid asset class, noted the sector s current $1.8 trillion size, and forecast growth to 4 trillion ($4.6 trillion) by 2030. Recent redemption requests spreading from the U.S. to Europe and concerns around AI's impact on software holdings were discussed as immediate industry challenges.