Wheat futures rose in early trading on Friday at the Chicago Board of Trade, with contracts moving to their strongest level in six weeks as market participants prepared for a widely watched U.S. Department of Agriculture crop report.
Across the board, CBOT wheat climbed in the range of 12 to 14 cents per bushel as traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA's monthly crop data release, which is set for 12 p.m. EDT. A recent poll of analysts indicated the USDA is likely to cut its forecast for 2026-27 U.S. wheat ending stocks to 714 million bushels, down from 744 million in June.
Front-month contract performance reflected the broader move higher. CBOT September soft red winter wheat was last reported up 13-1/4 cents at $6.33 per bushel. On the Kansas City board, September hard red winter wheat rose 15-3/4 cents to $6.70 per bushel. In Minneapolis, September spring wheat gained 9-1/2 cents, trading at $6.48-1/2 per bushel.
Outside of U.S. supply forecasts, traders were also tracking developments that could influence global wheat availability. The grain trade association Coceral lowered its projection for soft wheat production in the European Union and Britain by 2% on account of heat conditions.
Geopolitical risks remained part of the market backdrop. Traders monitored signs of a potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, noting that both countries are major grain exporters and any disruption could affect international flows.
The combination of an anticipated reduction in U.S. ending stocks, weather-driven downgrades in Europe, and persistent geopolitical tension contributed to heightened market attention as the USDA report approached. Participants appeared to be positioning for changed estimates and potential shifts in the near-term supply picture.
Given the information available ahead of the midday release, markets entered the report with notable upward price movement and close attention to developments that could influence both U.S. and global wheat supplies.