Bernstein updated its outlook for gold, raising its 2026 price target to $4,533 per ounce and assigning a $4,375 per ounce goal for the second half of 2026, while leaving its longer-term price targets through 2030 unchanged.
The bank emphasized that the negative correlation between real interest rates and the price of gold was apparent during the second quarter of 2026. Real rates climbed from 2.00% in early April to 2.28% by late June, a move that coincided with a slide in gold from roughly $4,650 an ounce to about $4,000 an ounce.
Despite public discussion that the Federal Reserve might raise rates following its mid-June inflation forecast revisions, Bernstein reported that its economics team does not expect a higher Fed Funds rate over the next 12 months. The firm suggested the central bank may be limited to either no hikes or only one to two hikes in that period, a constraint the bank attributes to President Donald Trump’s preference for contained rates.
Bernstein also flagged demand dynamics underpinning its bullish case for gold. The firm expects only limited outflows from exchange-traded funds, a typical pattern when rates rise, and it underscored continued evidence that central banks are reallocating reserves into gold as a central element of its core bullish thesis.
Referencing the World Gold Council's 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves survey, Bernstein noted that 89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, and a record 45% of central banks plan to add to their own holdings.
Analysis - Bernstein’s revised targets reflect a view that central bank accumulation and restrained U.S. policy tightening will support higher nominal gold prices in the medium term. The firm’s observations on real rates and Q2 price action reiterate gold’s sensitivity to interest-rate-adjusted returns. The central bank survey data cited by Bernstein serves as a foundational element of its bullish stance.
Forecast caveat - Bernstein explicitly lists stickier-than-expected inflation as a principal risk, noting that such an outcome could prompt a more aggressive Fed response and weigh on gold.