Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month price target on Airbus SE to €240 from €230 and kept a Buy rating on the shares, pointing to what it expects will be a meaningful recovery in Commercial aircraft deliveries and a modestly lower cost of capital assumption.
The bank anticipates "strong Q2 2026 results for Airbus, driven by a sharp recovery in Commercial deliveries as the A320 family fuselage panel issue eases and following the delivery of c.20 China aircraft delayed from Q1." Goldman forecasts group revenue for the second quarter of €19.99 billion and group EBIT of €2.10 billion, equating to a group EBIT margin of roughly 10.5%.
In its sector-level view, Goldman expects the Commercial division to see margin expansion of about 60 basis points year-on-year, which the bank attributes to higher volumes and an improved delivery mix. It also expects "a solid quarter from Helicopters and Defence & Space," supported by robust activity and resilient civil, defence and security demand.
One key modelling change behind the upgraded target was a reduction in Goldman Sachs' weighted average cost of capital assumption for Airbus to 9.0% from 9.3%, a shift the bank said reflected a lower beta for the company. That lower discount rate contributed to lifting the target price.
Goldman noted that Airbus shares have advanced more than 20% since the company reported first-quarter 2026 results, driven in part by mounting expectations for a "catalyst-rich H2 and a back-end-loaded FY26 delivery profile." With the Farnborough Airshow business update approaching, the broker expects investor attention to concentrate on supply-chain developments and any new information regarding the fuselage panel rectification.
At a prior update in Paris, Airbus emphasised a target cash conversion of about 1 times over a five-year horizon, an extended capital returns framework with a dividend payout ratio range of 30% to 50%, and divisional 2028 targets for Defence & Space and Helicopters. That previous release did not include a Commercial-specific EBIT guide, Goldman noted.
Looking ahead to Farnborough, Goldman expects the focus to shift back to Commercial operations with the potential for guidance on commercial EBIT at full-rate deliveries. The bank suggested Airbus could point to a Commercial EBIT level of approximately €10 billion.
Goldman also quantified the potential earnings impact from Airbus' planned A320 ramp. The proposed increase to a rate of 75 implies about 255 additional narrowbody deliveries relative to 2025. Goldman estimates that uplift could translate into roughly €4 billion of incremental EBIT, assuming about €15 million of drop-through per aircraft.
The broker reiterated a set of downside risks to its outlook, naming further delivery guidance downgrades, foreign exchange pressures, and headwinds within the Space business. Airbus is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 29.
Contextual takeaways
- Goldman raises the target price and lowers WACC as delivery and risk profiles improve.
- Commercial operations are central to the near-term earnings outlook, while Helicopters and Defence & Space provide supportive contributions.
- The planned A320 production ramp is a key potential earnings driver if delivery volumes materialise.