Eli Lilly and Company posted first-quarter 2026 results that Barclays says highlight continued expansion of the GLP-1 class and carry neutral-to-positive implications for Novo Nordisk. Lilly cited strong demand for its obesity therapies Mounjaro and Zepbound as drivers of an outperformance that prompted management to raise full-year guidance.
The company increased its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook by $2 billion and lifted expected earnings per share by $2.00, taking revenue guidance to $82 billion to $85 billion and EPS guidance to $35.50 to $37.00. Management attributed the revision to stronger-than-forecast uptake of Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Sales dynamics in the period showed Mounjaro delivering results roughly 20% above Bloomberg consensus and Zepbound about 3% above estimates. Lilly reported that Mounjaro’s performance was supported by a sizable contribution from international markets.
Market-share figures disclosed by Lilly indicate its U.S. share of the incretin class reached 60.1%, compared with Novo Nordisk’s 39.4%, while the total U.S. incretin market grew by roughly 30% during the period. Outside the United States, international incretin markets expanded 77% year-over-year, with Lilly taking 53.2% share versus Novo Nordisk’s 46.8% share. Company management said Mounjaro has established market leadership outside the U.S., noting rapid uptake in more than 55 countries and citing about 60% share in select markets such as Brazil and Korea.
Lilly provided details on its oral GLP-1, Foundayo, reporting approximately 20,000 patients on therapy. Broad retail availability for Foundayo began April 9, and the product is offered through more than a dozen telehealth platforms that account for roughly 35% of early volume. The company said over 80% of prescriptions for Foundayo are new-to-incretin patients and that about 45% of early volume has flowed through Lilly Direct. Lilly plans to begin full direct-to-consumer promotion in the third quarter.
On coverage access, Lilly noted a Medicare GLP-1 bridge program that starts July 1 and runs through the end of 2027, carrying an estimated out-of-pocket cost of about $50 per month for beneficiaries. Management expects this program to support patient activation into 2027.
Beyond GLP-1s, Lilly has advanced development programs for eloralintide, a selective amylin receptor agonist, initiating multiple phase 3 studies across indications including obesity, incretin add-on obesity, osteoarthritis knee pain and obstructive sleep apnea.
The company also reported growth in other franchises. Ebglyss generated $145 million in sales, up 141% year-over-year, with U.S. new patient starts increasing by roughly 90%. Pediatric phase 3 data for Ebglyss showed an EASI-75 response rate of 62.6% compared with 21.6% for placebo, and Lilly plans regulatory submissions for the program in 2026.
Barclays frames Lilly’s quarter as evidence that the GLP-1 market is continuing to expand rapidly even as competition intensifies, and notes that these dynamics present neutral-to-positive implications for Novo Nordisk. Novo Nordisk is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, May 6.
Contextual note - The results disclosed include management commentary on international market shares, patient volumes, and program starts as summarized above. The company’s guidance and clinical program timelines are those provided by Lilly in its first-quarter update.