Stock Markets May 18, 2026 08:38 AM

Citigroup Sees Server CPU Market Surging to $132 Billion by 2030, Intel Poised to Lead

Brokerage projects explosive agentic CPU growth and keeps Intel as market frontrunner while lifting price targets

By Caleb Monroe INTC AMD ARM

Citigroup forecasts the server CPU market will reach roughly $132 billion by 2030, driven chiefly by rapid adoption of agentic CPUs. The bank expects general purpose and AI head node CPUs to expand as well, and projects Intel will hold a 47% share of the market by 2030 with AMD at 34% and Arm and others at 19%. Citigroup raised price targets on Intel and AMD, assigning Intel a buy and AMD a neutral rating. Year-to-date share gains for Intel and AMD were noted in the brokerage report.

Citigroup Sees Server CPU Market Surging to $132 Billion by 2030, Intel Poised to Lead
INTC AMD ARM

Key Points

  • Citigroup projects the server CPU market will expand from $29.3 billion in 2025 to about $132 billion by 2030, with agentic CPUs driving much of the increase.
  • General purpose CPUs are forecast to reach $50.9 billion by 2030 (20% CAGR) and AI head nodes to $21.1 billion (21% CAGR); agentic CPUs are expected to grow to $59.4 billion at a 185% CAGR.
  • Citigroup expects Intel to hold a 47% market share in 2030, AMD 34%, and Arm plus other competitors 19%; the brokerage raised price targets on Intel and AMD and assigned Intel a buy rating and AMD a neutral rating.

Citigroup projects the server CPU market will grow substantially over the coming years, rising to approximately $132 billion by 2030 from $29.3 billion in 2025. The brokerage attributes the bulk of that increase to the emergence and rapid growth of agentic CPUs.

In its forecast, Citigroup breaks the market into three primary segments. General purpose CPUs are expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 20% to reach $50.9 billion by 2030. AI head nodes are projected to grow at a 21% CAGR, arriving at $21.1 billion in 2030. The strongest projected expansion is for agentic CPUs, which Citigroup estimates will grow at a 185% CAGR and account for $59.4 billion of the market by 2030.

On market share, Citigroup anticipates Intel will retain a plurality of the server CPU market, holding a 47% share by 2030. Advanced Micro Devices is forecast to command 34%, while Arm and other competitors are expected to make up the remaining 19% of the market.

The brokerage adjusted its price targets in response to these projections. Citigroup raised its target on Intel to $130 from $95 and maintained a buy rating on the stock. For AMD, the bank increased its price target to $460 from $358 while keeping a neutral rating.

Citigroup also noted a shift in cloud-provider priorities that is relevant to CPU demand: providers are moving focus from training AI models to deploying them. That shift is identified as a part of why vendors are placing greater emphasis on CPU opportunities tied to deployment workloads.

Citigroup's report highlighted recent investor moves in the sector. Intel shares have risen about 195% year to date, while AMD shares have increased roughly 98% over the same period.


Context and implications

The projections outline a market in which agentic CPUs become a major driver of server-level investment. The expected scale of agentic CPU adoption, according to Citigroup, would reshape the revenue mix across CPU categories by 2030, increasing the relative importance of specialized deployment processors alongside growth in general purpose and AI head node chips.

Citigroup's adjustments to price targets and ratings reflect the brokerage's view of how these trends could influence vendor economics and competitive positions through the end of the decade.

Risks

  • The forecasts rely heavily on the adoption trajectory of agentic CPUs; if agentic CPU deployment does not accelerate as projected, overall market size and segment revenue figures could differ - impacting server vendors and cloud providers.
  • Market share projections are forward-looking estimates; competitive dynamics could shift shares away from the firms Citigroup expects to lead, which would influence revenue and valuation outcomes for CPU vendors and related hardware suppliers.
  • Analyst price targets and ratings may change and do not guarantee future stock performance; equity valuations for Intel and AMD could be affected by developments not captured in the current projections.

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