Stock Markets May 4, 2026 08:58 AM

Bernstein Sees Rare Window for Apple to Expand Share as Q2 Strength Continues

Analyst lifts AAPL price target to $350, highlights memory-driven supply pressures and buyback flexibility ahead of leadership change

By Marcus Reed AAPL
Bernstein Sees Rare Window for Apple to Expand Share as Q2 Strength Continues
AAPL

Bernstein increased its price target on Apple to $350 from $340 and kept an Outperform rating after the company reported stronger-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results and issued upbeat guidance for the June quarter. Robust iPhone sales and Services growth, expanding gross margins, and an aggressive buyback plan were central to the note, while rising memory costs and their delayed impact due to Apple’s procurement practices remain key near-term risks.

Key Points

  • Bernstein raised its Apple price target to $350 from $340 and maintained an Outperform rating after stronger-than-expected fiscal Q2 results and upbeat guidance.
  • Apple reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $111.2 billion, up 17% year-over-year, with iPhone revenue rising 22% to $57 billion and Services up 16% to $31 billion; EPS was $2.01 and gross margin expanded to 49.3%.
  • Bernstein raised revenue estimates for fiscal 2027 and 2028 by 3% due to a higher starting point and rising ASPs as Apple expands its product lineup; rising memory costs and timing of their impact are key supply-chain considerations.

Bernstein raised its price objective on Apple to $350 from $340 and reaffirmed an Outperform stance after the iPhone maker posted solid fiscal second-quarter results and offered guidance implying continued strength into the summer months.

Apple reported revenue of $111.2 billion for the fiscal second quarter, a 17% increase year-over-year that exceeded the top end of the company’s own guidance. Currency movements provided roughly a 2.5 percentage point tailwind to that top-line strength.

The iPhone business was the standout, generating $57 billion in revenue, up 22% year-over-year. Services also contributed meaningfully, rising 16% to $31 billion. Earnings per share came in at $2.01, a 22% increase, while gross margins expanded to 49.3%, beating consensus estimates.

For the June quarter, Apple guided to revenue growth in the range of 14% to 17% year-over-year, a marked acceleration from the low-to-mid single digit pace seen in recent quarters. Management expects gross margins to be between 47.5% and 48.5% for that period.

Bernstein analyst Mark Newman notes that the market share gains appear to be materializing as expected. "Apple has a once in a generation opportunity to gain market share over the next 12-24 months as rivals stumble unable to get enough memory (in some cases CPUs) or cannot afford to pay market prices," he wrote.

Following the quarter, Bernstein increased its revenue estimates for fiscal 2027 and 2028 by 3%, driven by the stronger starting point and higher average selling prices as Apple broadens its product lineup into both higher-end and budget tiers. The firm specifically cited Apple’s planned expansion into the high end with a foldable phone and into the budget tier with the iPhone 17e, 18e, and MacBook Neo as contributors to rising ASPs.

Newman also highlighted upcoming updates to Siri and Apple Intelligence as potential catalysts for the business.

At the same time, Bernstein trimmed its gross margin estimate for fiscal 2027 to 47.5% from 47.9%, pointing to rising memory costs that management indicated will drive a 130 basis point sequential decline from the second to third quarter. The analyst expects those cost pressures to intensify before easing, with the December quarter - fiscal Q1 2027 - representing the peak impact.

Crucially, Apple’s procurement approach alters the timing of those effects. Because the company locks in component costs at the start of a product cycle through bulk purchasing, the full extent of higher memory prices is delayed compared with most smartphone and PC peers. "Unlike most smartphone and PC makers, Apple’s unique supply chain management means the full extent of memory prices will not be felt until the December quarter," Newman wrote.

In addition to the operational and supply-chain dynamics, Apple retired its long-standing net-cash-neutral target and announced a buyback authorization in excess of $100 billion. Bernstein points to this shift as providing Apple’s management greater flexibility as the company navigates an impending leadership transition from Tim Cook to Kevan Parekh.


Implications for markets and sectors

  • Technology hardware and smartphone supply chains could see competitive rebalancing if Apple captures incremental share.
  • Semiconductor and memory markets are directly implicated by the cost pressures that Bernstein cites.
  • Capital markets may react to the large buyback authorization and the shift away from a net-cash-neutral posture.

Risks

  • Rising memory costs are expected to pressure gross margins, prompting Bernstein to cut its fiscal 2027 gross margin estimate to 47.5% from 47.9%; the December quarter is expected to be the peak impact - this affects technology hardware OEMs and semiconductor suppliers.
  • The full effect of higher component prices is delayed by Apple’s bulk purchasing approach, but those costs are still expected to build before easing, creating near-term margin compression risk for Apple and sector peers.
  • Competitive dynamics among smartphone and PC makers could shift if rival firms face constrained memory or CPU availability or cannot match prevailing market prices, impacting device makers and their supply chains.

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