Oppenheimer has moved Airbnb's rating to Outperform from Perform and assigned a $180 price target, citing growing confidence that a combination of product changes and demand catalysts will accelerate revenue beyond current Street expectations.
In a note explaining the change, analyst Jed Kelly pointed to several specific initiatives that he believes will lift Airbnb's growth trajectory. Those initiatives include the company’s expansion into hotels, the rollout of Reserve Now and a Pay Later option, and enhancements to search powered by artificial intelligence. Kelly described these elements as potential sources of durable revenue acceleration.
Hotels opportunity highlighted
Kelly was particularly positive on the hotels segment. He called out Manhattan as a noteworthy market where supply remains approximately 3 million nights below 2019 levels, a shortfall he attributes to tighter regulation. Based on Oppenheimer’s analysis, hotels could contribute roughly three percentage points to nights with minimal uplift, while presenting significantly larger upside if Airbnb’s conversion and awareness rates reached the 30-50% range achieved by scaled online travel agencies.
The note also argued that Airbnb’s more distributed and flexible inventory gives it an advantage over traditional online travel agencies when travel corridors are disrupted by events such as oil supply shocks. That flexibility, Oppenheimer suggested, could help the company better absorb volatility in travel patterns.
Near-term demand and forecast changes
Oppenheimer pointed to the World Cup as a near-term demand tailwind, noting that rentals in host cities are already pacing above 2025 levels. Reflecting these views, the firm nudged its 2027 nights forecast up by 2%, now projecting 10% year-over-year growth for that metric. Corresponding 2027 revenue and EBITDA estimates were raised to be about 3% and 1% above consensus, respectively.
Valuation and downside
On valuation, Kelly observed that Airbnb is trading at roughly 14 times 2027E EBITDA. He characterized the risk-reward as favorable, saying that this multiple leaves limited downside if the company’s initiatives fail to scale as anticipated.
Overall, Oppenheimer’s upgrade frames Airbnb’s current product roadmap and demand signals as underappreciated by the market, while also quantifying modest forecast lifts and maintaining a cautionary view that outcomes depend on the scaling of the identified initiatives.