Mexico's central bank on Monday published its monthly survey of private-sector economists, revealing adjustments to projections for inflation, economic growth and the exchange rate through the end of 2027.
The panel raised its forecast for year-end 2026 inflation to 4.37% from a previous 4.22%, while leaving the 2027 year-end inflation estimate unchanged at 3.82%.
Economic growth expectations were mixed. The consensus trimmed the gross domestic product forecast for 2026 to 1.35% from 1.44%, but economists nudged up the 2027 GDP projection to 1.82% from 1.79%.
On currency expectations, the survey showed a slightly stronger outlook for the peso at the end of 2026, with the average forecast moving to 18.02 pesos per U.S. dollar compared with the prior estimate of 18.11. The 2027 year-end exchange rate projection was adjusted to 18.55 from 18.65 pesos per dollar.
These figures represent the average responses of 43 economists polled by Banco de Mexico in its monthly round of forecasts. The revised numbers signal modest shifts in expectations for inflation, output and the currency over the next two years based on the surveyed panel's latest views.
Context and implications
The survey's upward revision to the 2026 inflation forecast, alongside a slightly downgraded growth outlook for the same year, highlights a combination of persistent price pressures and softer near-term expansion in the panel's view. At the same time, the unchanged 2027 inflation projection and small increase to 2027 GDP expectations indicate an anticipated gradual easing of inflationary pressure and modest recovery in growth relative to the newly lowered 2026 baseline.
Currency projections moved in tandem with these adjustments, with economists expecting a marginally firmer peso by the end of 2026 and a slightly stronger rate through 2027 compared with previous estimates. All projections reported here are the averaged responses from the surveyed group of 43 economists.
Data limitations
The survey reflects the consensus of the respondents at the time of polling. It does not provide causal explanations for the changes in forecasts or identify underlying drivers beyond the stated numerical adjustments.