MOSCOW, May 4 - A prominent think tank close to the Russian government has concluded that the recent surge in global crude prices will not be sufficient to lift Russia's economic expansion this year. Analysts pointed to attacks on energy infrastructure and the imposition of new Western sanctions as factors that have reduced crude output and constrained exports.
The TsMAKP think tank lowered its projection for gross domestic product growth after revising down expectations for oil and petroleum product exports in the 2026-2029 period. The analysts said export volumes in 2026 would be lower than previously anticipated, and they forecast that Russian exports this year will fall compared with 2025. The note did not include specific numerical export figures, which the think tank said are confidential.
In explaining the changes to its baseline scenario for Russia's socio-economic development, TsMAKP highlighted the risks of further production curbs and a consequent decline in hydrocarbon exports tied to additional attacks on port infrastructure and oil refineries. "The forecast for Russian oil and petroleum product exports in 2026-2029 has been revised downward. This year, a reduction in exports from Russia is expected compared to 2025," the analysts wrote.
Following the reassessment of external conditions, the think tank trimmed its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to a range of 0.5% to 0.7%. That is a downgrade from the 0.9% to 1.3% range it published only one month earlier. The Russian government is officially banking on 1.3% growth for the year, but officials have acknowledged that this figure was optimistic and indicated it will be revised. New official forecasts are expected later this month.
Russia's economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, marking the first quarterly decline since early 2023. The contraction prompted leader-level instructions to ministers to produce new proposals aimed at lifting growth.
TsMAKP and other analysts point to concrete operational disruptions that have already affected output. Reuters reported last month that Russia had been forced to cut oil production in April after Ukrainian drone strikes hit port facilities and refineries, and after supplies through the only remaining pipeline to Europe were halted. Those factors, TsMAKP said, were central to its updated external assumptions.
Separately, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told officials last week that the state budget had benefited from 200 billion roubles in windfall oil revenues due to higher crude prices. According to the minister, that amount offset a shortfall experienced in the previous two months.
Some forecasters had expected Russia to be among the principal beneficiaries of the recent jump in oil prices that followed the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and an associated blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the think tank's analysis indicates that higher prices alone are unlikely to counterbalance lower production and disrupted export routes.
Context and implications
TsMAKP's revision highlights a tension at the heart of Russia's near-term outlook: while elevated commodity prices can lift fiscal receipts, physical disruptions to crude output and logistics undermine the revenue and trade flows that underpin growth. The think tank's confidential handling of export numbers means policymakers and markets must weigh this downside risk without fuller public data on prospective volumes.