Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
4,096 total articles
U.S. manufacturing expanded in March, with the Institute for Supply Management's PMI climbing to 52.7 from 52.4 in February. The gain came alongside a sharp rise in the survey's prices paid measure to 78.3 and a lengthening of supplier delivery times to 58.9, reflecting disrupted supply chains tied to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and related ship…
Alberto Musalem, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Wednesday that while he views the current policy rate as appropriately placed for the near term, rising risks to inflation and employment mean officials must remain ready to raise or lower rates depending on incoming data. He reiterated support for recent decisions to hold ra…
Bank of America has updated its macro outlook after revising its oil price forecast, warning that surging energy costs will push headline PCE inflation toward 4% year-over-year in the coming months. The bank expects the rise to be temporary but now sees price levels at the end of next year about 50 basis points higher than previously forecast, driv…
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem told a Washington audience that he does not see an immediate need to alter the Fed's policy rate, saying the current stance is well positioned to manage risks to both growth and inflation. He emphasized rising inflation risks from the Middle East conflict and cautioned that higher commodity prices…
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem told a Washington audience that the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to keep the policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% is likely to remain appropriate for some time. He described a baseline 2026 outlook of real GDP near potential, unemployment steady, and core inflation gradually easing tow…
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that financial markets are pricing in more interest rate increases than the central bank is currently likely to deliver in response to economic disruption from the Iran war. Speaking at the central bank’s London headquarters, Bailey said the Monetary Policy Committee must balance risks to inflation with…
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin told Reuters that both consumers and firms appear to be treating the recent spike in oil prices as a short-lived shock rather than a durable change that would materially alter spending, pricing or inflation expectations. Barkin, who is not a voter on interest rate policy this year, pointed to weekl…
Coca-Cola and its two authorized bottlers - Coca-Cola Beverages South Africa and Coca-Cola Peninsula Beverages - announced plans to invest 17.6 billion rand (about $1.05 billion) in South Africa through 2030. The company said the funds will back expanded production capacity, strengthen distribution networks and accelerate innovation across the Coca…
A poll of nearly 70 foreign-exchange strategists conducted March 27-April 1 indicates the U.S. dollar's modest uptick since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran will likely fade. Analysts point to an erosion in the dollar's safe-haven appeal, higher Treasury yields, a slide in gold and broader market dynamics - including oil price moves and…
Goldman Sachs argues that recent market bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes following the Iran conflict overstate the risk that rising oil prices will force tighter U.S. monetary policy. Analyst Manuel Abecasis points to a narrower supply shock, a less oil-dependent economy, easing labor market pressures, anchored inflation expectations, and already…
Mortgage rates on the widely used 30-year fixed loan rose 14 basis points last week to 6.57%, the highest reading since August, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. The jump follows a spike in oil prices tied to the United States and Israel's war on Iran and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, which lifted Treasury yields and pushed borrowing …
Bank of America has trimmed its projection for global growth in 2026 and raised its inflation outlook after assessing the economic impact of the Iran war as a "mild stagflation" shock. The bank cut its global growth forecast by 40 basis points to 3.1% while lifting its 2026 inflation forecast by 90 basis points to 3.3%. It also expects monetary pol…
Turkey has requested Iranian authorization for 11 Turkish-owned ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, according to state-run Anadolu. Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu said 14 Turkish-owned vessels remain in the strait, with three engaged in operations and not seeking departure. Iran has effectively blocked the waterway sin…
New-vehicle purchases in the United States are forecast to decline in the first quarter of 2026 as elevated borrowing costs, strong vehicle prices and the expiration of certain EV incentives dent buyer activity. Industry forecaster Cox Automotive projects a 6.5% year-on-year drop in Q1 sales and a 2.6% decline for the year. Rising oil prices tied t…
European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said a protracted war in the Middle East increases the likelihood of a more persistent period of higher prices in the euro area, potentially moving the economy closer to the staff's adverse scenario. He noted energy prices are currently between the baseline and adverse projections and …
Ryanair's chief executive cautioned that ongoing hostilities in the Middle East could put as much as 25% of the airline's jet fuel supply at risk during May and June. The warning, delivered on Sky News, echoes broader industry concerns: the International Air Transport Association estimates a significant share of Europe’s aviation fuel originates fr…
Flavio Bolsonaro’s ascent in simulated match-up polls with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has given his campaign leeway to defer the formal unveiling of an economic policy team. The senator, who has been campaigning abroad and visiting his father, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, has signaled a platform broadly aligned with his father’s economic a…
Faced with new U.S. levies on European wines, a Brooklyn wine retailer is sourcing fine French and Italian bottles already stored in the United States and selling them through internet auctions to sidestep import tariffs. The approach reflects broader industry shifts as wineries, restaurants and merchants adapt to changing trade rules and renewed t…
The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee says the recent Middle East conflict has produced a substantial shock to the global economy, driving large moves in energy markets and creating heightened volatility across financial markets. The committee highlighted sharp increases in oil and gas prices, significant moves in UK government bond yiel…
U.S. stock futures gained after global markets rallied on comments from President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggesting the Iran conflict could be nearing an end. Boosted by hopes of restored shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, major European and Asian indices climbed, oil prices fell about 3%, and risk-sensitive assets rall…
Newly appointed Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada cautioned that the war in Iran and the associated jump in crude oil prices could create stagflationary conditions in Japan. Speaking at his inaugural news conference after joining the nine-member board, Asada said inflation has replaced deflation as the immediate concern and that relying sol…
British manufacturers reported a marked rise in input costs and lengthening delivery delays in March, linked to elevated oil and gas prices and shipping routes avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. The final S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0, with the output gauge slipping into contraction at 49.2. Employment readings weakened further and firms…
U.S. equity futures rose as markets parsed signals that the United States may be preparing to step back from its campaign in Iran. Oil retreated below $100 a barrel, easing from the spike seen after the conflict began, while gold extended gains and select corporate earnings and energy deal talk drew investor attention. The trading day reflected a m…
Euro zone manufacturing registered its most robust monthly expansion in almost four years in March, according to the S&P Global PMI, as delivery delays linked to Middle East hostilities inflated headline growth. Despite gains in production and a stabilisation of export orders, demand indicators remain subdued and input cost inflation has jumped to …
An ECB policymaker warned that the euro zone economy may already be following the central bank’s outlined 'adverse' path, with energy-driven inflation potentially becoming entrenched faster than during the 2022 spike. Officials will monitor incoming data ahead of the April 30 meeting, but if high energy costs spread through the broader economy and …
