Economy May 1, 2026 05:51 AM

Equities Open Modestly Higher After April’s Strong Rally; Energy Shock Clouds Outlook

S&P 500 and Dow futures tick up as earnings and tech strength bolster markets, while higher inflation and oil disruption add uncertainty

By Maya Rios
Equities Open Modestly Higher After April’s Strong Rally; Energy Shock Clouds Outlook

S&P 500 and Dow futures inched up Friday following the indices' largest monthly gains in years. Strong corporate results, led by Apple, helped sustain the rally despite data showing faster inflation and a pick-up in first-quarter GDP. Concerns persist about weakening consumer spending, declining personal savings and the growing economic strain from higher oil prices tied to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Points

  • Major U.S. equity futures rose modestly after April produced the largest monthly gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in years, supported by strong corporate results.
  • Apple’s 2.8% premarket rise was driven by robust demand for the iPhone 17 and MacBook Neo and helped underpin forecasts for solid fiscal third quarter sales.
  • Rising inflation in March and a pickup in first-quarter GDP bolster the case for elevated interest rates, while Brent crude exceeded $110 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.

S&P 500 and Dow futures moved slightly higher on Friday after the major U.S. indexes recorded their biggest monthly advances in years, lifted by a sequence of solid corporate results that offset growing concerns about an intense supply shock in oil markets.

Apple climbed 2.8% in premarket trading after saying robust demand for its iPhone 17 and the MacBook Neo positions it to deliver solid sales growth in the fiscal third quarter. The tech giant's update was among a string of earnings and guidance items that supported investor risk appetite.

Recent economic data showed U.S. growth regained speed in the first quarter and that inflation accelerated in March, developments that reinforce arguments for maintaining higher interest rates. Despite that, equities continued to rally.

Yet market participants are being warned the advance may be vulnerable to a correction. Consumer spending - the main engine of U.S. growth - slowed during the quarter, and the personal savings rate fell, indicating households drew on savings to keep consumption elevated. Those dynamics raise questions about the sustainability of the rally.

Compounding the risk is the fact that the economic figures incorporate only one month of the disruption tied to the war in the Middle East. With the conflict showing little sign of abating, higher oil prices could increasingly weigh on household budgets, particularly as the boost from tax refunds in the first quarter fades.

Brent crude has moved above $110 a barrel as the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route remains disrupted. On the economic readings, Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "GDP expanded at a respectable-looking pace in Q1, but a glance under the hood suggests the economy’s underlying momentum already was anemic before the energy shock was felt in earnest."

The market setup arrives as May begins, historically the start of a softer six-month period for stocks. Data cited from Fidelity show that from 1945 through April 2026 the S&P 500 has averaged roughly a 2% gain from May through October, compared with an average gain of about 7% from November through April.

Early trading indicators at 5:12 a.m. ET reflected modest moves: Dow E-minis were up 44 points, or 0.09%; S&P 500 E-minis rose 4.5 points, or 0.06%; while Nasdaq 100 E-minis fell 40.25 points, or 0.15%.

April closed out as a notably strong month for U.S. equity benchmarks. The S&P 500 posted its biggest monthly percentage gain since November 2020, the Nasdaq Composite advanced the most since April 2020, and the Dow logged its largest monthly increase since November 2024.

In premarket movers, Roblox shares slid 23.5% after the company cut its annual bookings forecast, while Reddit shares rose 16.1% following an upbeat quarterly revenue forecast.


Market takeaway - Corporate earnings momentum and specific tech strength helped propel a significant April rally, but economic readings showing cooling consumer behavior and rising energy costs tied to Middle East disruptions inject downside risk for both households and markets.

Risks

  • Consumer spending slowed in the first quarter and the personal savings rate declined, indicating households may have drawn on savings to sustain consumption - a risk to retailers and consumer-facing sectors.
  • Oil price pressure from ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could increase energy costs for households and businesses, weighing on discretionary spending and transportation sectors.
  • The economic data include only one month of the Middle East disruption, so a prolonged conflict could magnify inflationary and growth impacts beyond what current figures reflect.

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