Overview
OPEC+ is widely expected to endorse a small upward revision to its oil output target at a meeting scheduled for Sunday, three anonymous sources with direct knowledge of the discussions said. The adjustment under consideration is about 188,000 barrels per day (bpd), roughly equivalent to last month’s 206,000 bpd hike reduced by the UAE’s share as that country prepares to leave the group on May 1.
Those familiar with the talks said the proposed change would signal a continuation of the group’s recent approach to quota-setting - a business as usual stance in the view of one source. However, the assembly has not formally taken a final decision in advance of the meeting, another source added.
Context and supply effects
Output and export patterns in the Gulf have been disrupted since the Iran war began on February 28. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked shipments from several OPEC+ Gulf members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE. These four producers had been the only countries within the group capable of raising production prior to the conflict.
OPEC reported that combined crude production across all OPEC+ members averaged 35.06 million bpd in March, a decline of 7.70 million bpd from February. The largest reductions were recorded by Iraq and Saudi Arabia, reflecting constraints on exports. Beyond the Gulf, Russia has also trimmed output after infrastructure was damaged in Ukrainian drone attacks.
Membership and decision-making
The seven members participating in the Sunday meeting are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman. With the UAE’s departure, OPEC+ will still comprise 21 members, including Iran, though in recent years only the seven nations plus the UAE regularly influenced monthly production decisions.
OPEC did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent after business hours on Wednesday. All sources who described the likely outcome spoke on condition of anonymity.
Implications
If agreed, the planned increase would be modest and reflect a continuation of the group’s incremental quota adjustments despite significant disruptions to Gulf export capacity and the reconfiguration of membership dynamics following the UAE’s exit.
The final vote and any accompanying communique from the meeting will determine whether the expected increase is adopted and how the group frames its production strategy amid ongoing supply risks.