Goldman Sachs sustained its forecast that gold will climb to $5,400 per troy ounce by the close of 2026, but strategists warned that the metal faces short-term downside risks tied to market liquidity and geopolitical friction.
"We view near-term risks to our gold price forecast as skewed to the downside, as gold remains vulnerable to further liquidation should Hormuz disruptions persist and bond-or equities correct further," Goldman strategists Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note.
The bank’s bullish structural outlook is anchored on central bank demand. Goldman expects central banks to average 60 tonnes of gold purchases per month through 2026. However, its nowcast recorded a pronounced fall to just 2 tonnes in February, a decline the strategists described as likely a temporary pause caused by extreme price swings.
Goldman shared findings from a survey of 29 central banks conducted during its central bank conference on April 23. Roughly 70% of respondents indicated they expect global gold reserves to increase over the coming 12 months, while about 25% anticipated reserves would remain flat. The survey also showed that approximately 70% of central bank respondents expect gold prices to be above $5,000 per troy ounce one year from the survey date.
When asked about preferred storage locations for new purchases, central bankers most frequently chose the Bank of England in London, with domestic storage listed as the second choice.
In outlining its baseline assumptions, Goldman said its base case presumes no further private sector liquidation of gold and no sizable additional private sector diversification beyond what would accompany a modest Federal Reserve easing cycle. The bank’s economists project 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts, which Goldman expects would act as a tailwind for gold prices.
Looking beyond the near term, strategists noted that medium-term risks are tilted to the upside if geopolitical developments accelerate the shift toward gold. Specifically, they said risks would increase if the Iran episode - together with broader developments involving Greenland and Venezuela - were to spur greater diversification into gold and to intensify concerns about Western fiscal sustainability.
This assessment leaves gold’s 2026 target intact but underscores the sensitivity of price path assumptions to short-run liquidity events, central bank behavior, and geopolitical developments.