United Airlines shares dropped 3.1% in pre-open trading to $106.25, pressured by a steep industry-wide earnings downgrade from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and renewed investor concern about surging jet fuel costs extending into 2026.
IATA published its Global Outlook for Air Transport over the weekend, cutting its combined global airline net profit projection to $23 billion - roughly half of its earlier $41 billion forecast and about half of the $45 billion the industry recorded in 2025. The organization identified fuel-price inflation driven by events in the Middle East as the chief factor behind the downward revision.
The report compounds existing headwinds for United. Earlier this year the carrier trimmed its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share guidance to a range of $7 to $11, down from a previous $12 to $14 estimate. Management cited elevated fuel costs that added around $340 million of additional pressure in the first quarter and forced the airline to reduce planned capacity by approximately five percentage points.
U.S. Department of Transportation figures highlighted the scale of the industry-wide cost increase, showing total fuel spending for U.S. scheduled airlines rose 78% year-over-year in April 2026, with the average price of jet fuel reaching $4.11 per gallon. At the IATA annual gathering in Rio de Janeiro, United CEO Scott Kirby said the airline expects to recover the full fuel cost hit through fare increases by year-end and that United remains committed to investing in premium products, comments that appear to have done little to reassure investors given the broad guidance range.
Competitive behavior among major carriers has diverged. Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines opted not to revise their 2026 earnings targets, a stance that contrasted with United's and American Airlines' guidance reductions and contributed to market perceptions that those two carriers are more exposed to near-term cost pressures.
The broader market provided limited support for airline shares, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the NASDAQ off 1.0% as investors adopted a cautious tone across risk assets. IATA Director General Willie Walsh warned that "war-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs have shifted the outlook for airlines to the worse," and the association expects jet fuel prices to average $152 per barrel for the year - nearly 70% above 2025 levels.
Those elements - IATA's profit forecast cut, United's earlier guidance reduction, and a subdued market backdrop - combined to weigh on UAL shares in pre-market trading, leaving the stock well below its 52-week high of $119.21 and underscoring investor unease about the sector's near-term earnings trajectory.
Context and implications
The confluence of a halved industry profit outlook, documented increases in fuel spending, and differing guidance decisions among major carriers has intensified scrutiny on airline profitability for 2026. United's lowered guidance and the material fuel-related expense noted in the first quarter make the carrier's near-term earnings path particularly sensitive to further fuel-price moves and to its ability to pass costs on to customers.