Options activity compiled by Bloomberg shows Fastenal Co.'s shares are priced to move about 5% on the company's July 13 earnings release, which is scheduled for before the market opens. That 5% figure is derived from the options-implied expected move for the stock around the event.
Looking at the company's recent earnings history, the share price has outpaced the options-implied move in half of the last eight announcements and fallen short in the other half. The data set covers eight discrete earnings dates and compares the actual one-day post-earnings percentage change in the stock to the options-implied move for each event.
Specific instances in the sequence include several large discrepancies between implied and realized moves. On April 13, the stock declined 1.1%, while the options market had priced in a 5.0% move. On Jan. 20, shares climbed 2.2% against an implied 4.4% swing.
Other events in the sample show the stock exceeding the implied threshold. In October 2025, shares plunged 11.6%, well beyond an implied move of 3.6%. On July 14, 2025, the stock rose 4.5% against an implied move of 3.2%.
Earlier in 2025, on April 11 the stock advanced 3.4% versus an implied move of 4.6%. In January 2025, shares increased 4.3% compared with an implied move of 2.7% for that earnings date.
Going further back, on Oct. 11, 2024, the stock jumped 8.6% against an implied move of 5.3%. On July 12, 2024, shares rose 4.4% while the options-implied move had been 4.6%.
The pattern in these eight events is evenly split: four occasions where the actual one-day post-earnings move exceeded what options had implied and four occasions where the actual move was smaller. The options-implied 5% figure for the upcoming July 13 release provides a market-based expectation of near-term volatility, while the historical record shows that outcomes have varied materially from implied levels.
Context and implications
Options pricing suggests a notable change in share price around the July 13 report, but historical results demonstrate that actual moves have alternated between exceeding and undershooting those expectations. Market participants who follow Fastenal may weigh the options-implied move alongside the uneven historical record when calibrating risk around the release.