Oppenheimer said Thursday that it has raised its projections for Tesla following the SpaceX initial public offering, but the firm cautioned that a combined Tesla-SpaceX entity does not appear to be the most strategically compelling path for CEO Elon Musk's long-term AI objectives.
Estimates revised higher
The firm increased its fiscal 2026 revenue estimate for Tesla to $97.2 billion and adjusted EPS to $2.03, up from prior estimates of $94.5 billion and $2.00. Oppenheimer also nudged up its revenue and earnings forecasts for fiscal 2027 and 2028, driven largely by higher expectations for stationary energy storage and vehicle sales.
Merger narrative assessed
Addressing the growing discussion among investors that Tesla and SpaceX might combine, Oppenheimer said Musk's "longer-term vision of AI is best served by diversified, flexible access to capital" and that maintaining "two public currencies supports that strategy most effectively." While the firm described a merger as "plausible," it characterized a near-term transaction as unlikely.
Oppenheimer expects that supply-chain synergies across areas such as energy storage, server infrastructure and data operations will continue to expand independently before any possible deal is pursued.
Near-term beneficiaries and sector impacts
The analyst team identified Tesla's stationary storage segment as a primary near-term beneficiary of the SpaceX IPO. The note argues Tesla's energy storage capabilities are "a key enabler of SPCX's time to power/compute," a dynamic that is helping drive cash flow through data center leasing activities. As a result, Oppenheimer raised its energy storage sales forecasts by 2% for the remainder of 2026 and by 3% for both 2027 and 2028.
On the automotive front, the firm cited elevated oil prices as supporting electric vehicle total cost of ownership for consumers across regions and increased its vehicle sales forecasts by 4% for each year from 2026 through 2028.
Remaining cautions
Despite the upward revisions, Oppenheimer remains cautious about commercialization timelines for advanced autonomy and humanoid robotics. The firm highlighted Full Self-Driving version 15 (FSD V15) as the next important proof point for Tesla's progress in autonomy.
This analysis underscores how capital structure and flexible financing options factor into long-range AI strategies, while also showing tangible near-term upside in Tesla's energy storage and vehicle revenue assumptions following the SpaceX IPO.