New Street Research has opened coverage on SpaceX with a 12-month target price set at $165. That target represents roughly 22% upside relative to the proposed IPO price and implies a post-acquisition equity value of approximately $2.3 trillion assuming SpaceX completes its potential purchase of Cursor.
Valuation framework
Analyst Pierre Ferragu said the firm's valuation rested on three distinct angles. First, New Street applied a sum-of-the-parts framework that uses a discounted cash flow analysis for Starlink. In that construct, the firm also assessed how xAI's worth is boosted by the Cursor deal, the combination of xAI with what Ferragu called a "highly cash-generating telecom business," and the prospect of direct access to orbital compute. Within this part of the analysis, third-party launch activity was described as "only a small moving part in this picture."
Second, New Street examined where SpaceX could stand in 2030 in terms of revenues and growth prospects, then applied relevant earnings and sales multiples from comparable companies as a market-relative check. Third, the firm cross-checked its conclusions against a longer-term sizing of the broader space opportunity to ensure consistency with industry-scale expectations.
Market context and investor attention
The report's initiation arrives as SpaceX prepares for a public listing, an event that has drawn substantial investor attention. Market speculation has also emerged around the strategic direction of SpaceX and its potential interactions with other major technology companies.
Wolfe Research has noted that talk of a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger has moved into the mainstream, with some investors treating that possible transaction as a central reason for holding Tesla shares. By contrast, analysts at Oppenheimer wrote in a note that they see little strategic case for a Tesla-SpaceX merger.
Market indicators included with the coverage reflected recent price action in related tickers, including TSLA down 3.8% and SPCX showing 0.00% in the referenced snapshot.
This article reports the conclusions and observations presented by New Street Research and the analyst commentary cited. It reflects the valuation assumptions and market commentary contained in those materials.