Morgan Stanley analyst Josh Baer outlined his preferred names within the vertical software sector as companies prepare to report second-quarter 2026 results, emphasizing that while competitive moats remain intact across many firms, growth trajectories are diverging.
In a client note, Baer reported that companies in the vertical software cohort generally performed well on the moat-ranking portion of Morgan Stanley's software framework. However, he observed greater dispersion in journey rankings, a measure the firm uses to assess the path to sustainable revenue growth and improving analyst revisions. Baer cautioned that a strong competitive position is necessary but not sufficient for outperformance - a credible route to durable growth and positive revisions is also required.
Morgan Stanley's highlighted names
Baer identified two names as top picks and provided context for each.
- TTAN - ServiceTitan: Morgan Stanley designated ServiceTitan as its top pick in the vertical software category. The firm said ServiceTitan screened favorably on both moat strength and journey attractiveness within Morgan Stanley's January 2026 vertical software outlook. Baer noted that ServiceTitan, together with Toast, not only demonstrated solid competitive positioning but also scored well on attractiveness of their respective growth trajectories. The analyst also pointed out that ServiceTitan was not included in Morgan Stanley's second-quarter preview because it reports on an off-cycle schedule one month later.
- TOST - Toast: Toast ranked highly for journey attractiveness in Morgan Stanley's preview and was described by Baer as a best-in-class executor. The analyst expects a stable restaurant demand backdrop to support durable recurring gross profit growth and continued operating leverage. Those dynamics, coupled with results that come in ahead of guidance and consensus, are seen as supportive for the shares. Morgan Stanley views Toast as capable of steady share appreciation as recurring gross profit growth proves durable.
Baer noted valuation context for Toast, stating that the shares trade at roughly 16 times price-to-earnings, versus about 20 times for large-cap software peers. He added that a more meaningful rerating would likely require clearer visibility into stronger second-half growth, driven by sustained new location additions, stable-to-improving gross payment volume per location, faster software-as-a-service annual recurring revenue growth, or the emergence of artificial intelligence monetization.
Index inclusion and analyst updates
In a related development noted by Morgan Stanley, Toast was selected for inclusion in the S&P MidCap 400 index. On the analyst front, DA Davidson raised its price target on Toast to $30, while BMO Capital Markets reaffirmed an Outperform rating.
Baer's note underscores the dual requirements Morgan Stanley applies when assessing vertical software names: durable competitive positioning and demonstrable pathways to sustained revenue acceleration and upward estimate revisions. Firms that meet both criteria are positioned as potential outperformers within a group that otherwise shows mixed journeys.