Eli Lilly said on Monday that its oral obesity treatment Foundayo has secured over 30% of new patients entering the U.S. market for oral weight-loss drugs. The company described this as a notable narrowing of the early lead that Danish rival Novo Nordisk had established with its Wegovy pill.
Earlier commentary from Novo Nordisk indicated a large initial advantage for Wegovy. Novo CEO Mike Doustdar said in August the company estimated the Wegovy pill had captured about 90% of the country’s oral obesity market, despite the presence of Lilly’s Foundayo.
Market participants are watching demand for oral GLP-1 weight-loss medications closely. Oral formulations could broaden the pool of potential patients by offering an alternative to injections for those who are reluctant to use injectable therapies. Observers also note that oral drugs may help relieve some of the supply challenges that have affected injectable products.
In a separate segment of the market, Lilly’s injectable GLP-1 therapy Zepbound has attracted attention within the U.S. government’s Medicare obesity drug pilot, which launched in July. Ilya Yuffa, Lilly’s Executive Vice President, told attendees at the Morgan Stanley healthcare conference in New York that many enrollees in the program are new to GLP-1 treatments.
"When the market expands significantly through generic, share declines. But the overall volume, absolute volume, is continuing to grow for Mounjaro in those markets,"
Yuffa said 60% to 70% of patients enrolled in the Medicare pilot are new to these treatments. The pilot allows eligible beneficiaries to access weight-loss drugs for a monthly co-pay of $50. Medicare covers approximately 66 million people and serves those aged 65 and older as well as people with disabilities.
Industry projections referenced by market analysts suggest oral GLP-1 therapies could become a substantial portion of overall weight-loss treatment use. Novo has said it expects oral drugs to account for more than a third of GLP-1 weight-loss treatment use by 2030. Analysts also anticipate the U.S. obesity treatment market could exceed $100 billion in annual revenue by that year.
Outside the United States, Lilly faces additional pressures from lower-cost generics. In markets such as India and Canada, generic versions of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic are available at discounts of as much as 70% compared with branded versions. That dynamic has implications for market share in regions where generics gain traction.
Lilly also pointed to its broader portfolio in comments at the conference. The company noted that while generic competition can reduce a branded drug’s share within a market, total patient volume for therapies such as Mounjaro - Lilly’s brand name for tirzepatide used in obesity and diabetes outside the U.S. - has continued to grow in markets where generics have expanded availability.
Investors and industry observers are monitoring how the mix of oral and injectable therapies, generic penetration in select countries, and policy experiments like the Medicare pilot will influence patient adoption, market shares, and overall treatment volumes going forward.