In a client note distributed on Friday, Mizuho sought to temper mounting investor concerns that China-based memory manufacturer CXMT could add so much DRAM supply after its IPO that it would sharply depress pricing across the market.
Jordan Klein, a TMT sector specialist at the firm, said Mizuho's Japan team revised its assessment of CXMT to address what it characterized as excessive fear, uncertainty and doubt about an imminent, large-scale pricing collapse driven by massive supply additions over the next two years.
Mizuho estimates CXMT's DRAM bit supply will increase by only 13% year over year in 2027, compared with a projected 21% expansion for the broader DRAM industry. That trajectory would leave CXMT with about 8% of global DRAM bit share, the note said.
The bank also calculated a 2026-2028 compound annual growth rate for CXMT of about 24%, which it noted is roughly in line with the overall DRAM industry's expected growth. Mizuho argued that parity in CAGR suggests CXMT is not pursuing a reckless capacity build aimed at taking share through steep pricing tactics.
Several operational and technical constraints were cited as limits on rapid expansion. Mizuho noted that Applied Materials and Lam Research suspended servicing of CXMT's existing equipment in March 2026. Much of that installed tooling is aging and due for refresh and production-line upgrades, with many tools already around 10 years old.
The firm also flagged yield pressure associated with node transitions expected in 2027 and identified a shortage of EUV lithography tools as a major constraint on scaling output.
Policy direction from Beijing was another factor highlighted. Klein said the Chinese government prefers CXMT allocate a larger portion of capacity to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) rather than conventional DRAM, which in Mizuho's view reduces the risk of global DRAM oversupply.
Mizuho further pointed out that CXMT trails significantly in HBM capability and currently is not selling to hyperscalers outside China, both of which limit the company's potential to move global pricing dynamics materially.
Contextual note - The analysis focuses on CXMT's projected capacity and constraints as presented to clients by Mizuho; it does not introduce new operational or market data beyond that note.