Stock Markets July 1, 2026 01:23 PM

Jefferies: Broad-Based Volume Gains Propel Indian Auto Sales in June

Wholesales climb sharply across trucks, passenger cars and tractors as EV share inches higher in passenger and two-wheeler segments

By Sofia Navarro
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Jefferies reports robust year-over-year wholesale growth across multiple Indian automotive segments in June, led by a 38% jump in truck wholesales, 23% in passenger vehicles and 14% in tractors. Registration gains accelerated across segments, and electric vehicle penetration rose modestly in both passenger cars and two-wheelers.

Jefferies: Broad-Based Volume Gains Propel Indian Auto Sales in June
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Key Points

  • June wholesales rose 38% year-over-year for trucks, 23% for passenger vehicles, and 14% for tractors - impacting commercial vehicle and agricultural equipment markets.
  • EV penetration increased to 7.7% of passenger vehicle registrations and to 10.6% of two-wheeler registrations, signaling a gradual shift in the EV segment that affects OEM product mix and supply chains.
  • Manufacturer performance was uneven: Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles surged 67% year-over-year, Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra & Mahindra rose 24-28%, while Hyundai declined 10%, driven in part by a supplier fire that impacted production.

Jefferies said the Indian auto industry posted notable volume expansion across several segments in June, with wholesales showing double-digit year-over-year growth in trucks, passenger vehicles and tractors.


Overall wholesale performance was led by the truck segment, which recorded a 38% year-over-year increase in June. Passenger vehicle wholesales rose roughly 23% year-over-year, and tractor wholesales increased about 14% year-over-year, according to Jefferiesestimates based on original equipment manufacturer data.


Within passenger vehicles, growth patterns differed substantially by manufacturer. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles recorded a 67% year-over-year increase in wholesales. Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra & Mahindra each posted gains in the mid-20s range, rising roughly 24-28% year-over-year. Hyundai was the notable laggard, with wholesales down 10% year-over-year.

Hyundais decline reflected a supplier-related disruption: the company lost production of 14,000 units in June after a fire at a supplier facility. Hyundais production returned to normal levels on June 22, and the company plans to recover the lost production in the second quarter of fiscal year 2027.


Registration activity accelerated across segments, with year-over-year registration growth in the range of 20-38%. Electric vehicles continued to gain share in both two-wheelers and passenger cars. In the passenger vehicle market, the share of electric vehicles rose by approximately 1.1 percentage points month-over-month to 7.7% in June.

In the two-wheeler market, electric vehicle penetration climbed by 1.3 percentage points month-over-month to 10.6% in June, crossing the 10% threshold for the first time. Market leadership in electric two-wheelers for June was led by TVS Motor with a 24% share, followed by Bajaj Auto at 22% and Ather Energy at 16%.


Company-specific wholesale trends in two-wheelers were mixed. Eicher Motors reported a 27% year-over-year increase in wholesales for June. Honda posted 23% year-over-year growth, while Hero MotoCorp saw wholesale volumes fall 2% year-over-year.


Tractor industry registrations rose more sharply than wholesales, with registrations up about 30% year-over-year in June while wholesales grew approximately 14% year-over-year. Jefferies reaffirmed buy ratings on Eicher Motors, TVS Motor, Mahindra & Mahindra and Maruti Suzuki.


The data indicate a broad recovery in underlying demand across commercial and consumer vehicle categories in June, with electric mobility continuing to make incremental inroads in both passenger cars and two-wheelers.

Risks

  • Supply-chain disruption risk - Hyundai lost production of 14,000 units in June due to a fire at a supplier facility, demonstrating how supplier incidents can materially affect OEM volumes and near-term supply.
  • Uneven manufacturer performance creates execution risk for companies and investors - wide variation in wholesales among OEMs may translate to differing near-term financial outcomes across the sector.
  • Electric vehicle penetration remains modest despite gains - while EV share rose month-over-month, passenger EVs represented 7.7% and electric two-wheelers 10.6% in June, indicating continued reliance on internal combustion sales for most OEMs.

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