Chicago wheat futures climbed on Friday following military action in the Baltic and Moscow's rejection of a proposed pause in Black Sea hostilities, stoking fears the flow of Russian grain could be further disrupted.
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 22-1/4 cents higher at $6.75-1/2 per bushel as of 10:40 a.m. CT.
Russian officials dismissed a ceasefire proposal for the Black Sea after Ukraine had reportedly submitted an offer on Thursday aimed at halting attacks on civilian targets in the region. Separately, Ukraine's military said it struck the Novatek gas condensate processing complex located in the Baltic port of Ust-Luga.
While reports indicated no damage to grain sites, the strike added to concerns about risks to Russia's grain exports, which have already been curtailed in the Black Sea. Market participants viewed the developments as a factor behind the uptick in wheat prices.
Other agricultural contracts received upside support from the move in wheat and from higher energy prices. On the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans were trading 4-1/4 cents higher at $11.86-1/2 a bushel, and corn was up 8-1/2 cents at $4.80-1/2 a bushel. However, forecasts for rainfall across the U.S. Midwest limited the extent of gains for both crops.
Supply and acreage expectations have also shifted this week. The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its 2026 U.S. corn and soybean acreage estimates in its monthly report, while simultaneously lowering yield forecasts. These revisions are contributing to adjustments across agricultural markets as participants reassess production prospects.
Looking ahead, traders are preparing for a large field tour scheduled for next week that is expected to provide additional on-the-ground information about yield prospects for U.S. corn and soybeans. Meanwhile, the recent rain forecasts for the Midwest have eased some short-term concerns about crop conditions, potentially moderating price movements despite the geopolitical pressures on grain flows.
Market context: Prices rallied on geopolitical developments affecting export routes and on updated domestic acreage and yield estimates; weather forecasts are a moderating factor.