Goldman Sachs raised its expectation for Tesla's second-quarter vehicle deliveries, indicating the carmaker is likely tracking ahead of the market's consensus. The bank increased its Q2 2026 delivery estimate to 420,000 units from 405,000, citing a series of regional sales metrics that it says point to outperformance versus the Visible Alpha consensus of 400,000 units.
In a note to investors published on Tuesday, Goldman analyst Mark Delaney highlighted a range of monthly and weekly data points across several key markets - notably China, the U.S. and Europe - as the basis for the upward revision. The bank's commentary places particular emphasis on European registration figures and early June daily data that it describes as a strong start to the month.
Europe appears to be the most striking contributor to the revised outlook. Goldman reported that registration data through May show roughly an 85-90% year-over-year increase. The bank also noted that a portion of that surge reflects a favorable base effect, given that deliveries in Europe during Q2 2025 declined by 29% year-over-year.
In China, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data through May signaled high single-digit year-over-year growth in deliveries. Goldman added that other Asia-Pacific markets - expressly including South Korea and Australia - have delivered robust figures on both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter bases, further supporting its view that total deliveries may outpace consensus.
By contrast, Goldman identified the United States as the primary weakness in its regional breakdown. Citing Motor Intelligence data through May, the bank said U.S. deliveries were tracking down by the mid-teens on a year-over-year basis.
Goldman's note also restated its regional mix estimate for 2025: the U.S. accounted for a mid-30% share of Tesla's deliveries, China made up roughly 38%, and Europe constituted about 15% of total deliveries.
Context and implications
The bank's revision to 420,000 units reflects its interpretation of the available registration and sales time series across major markets. Goldman framed the stronger-than-consensus trajectory as being driven by outsized growth in Europe and resilient results across several Asia-Pacific markets, partially offset by a softer showing in the U.S. The bank's reliance on indicated monthly and weekly sales data underpins its assessment that Tesla's Q2 deliveries are "likely tracking ahead of consensus," as Delaney wrote.