Overview
Goldman Sachs has revised down its global smartphone volume outlook for the middle of the decade, trimming shipment forecasts for 2026 and 2027 amid persistent pressure from memory chip prices. The bank attributes the weaker volume outlook to constrained memory supply as demand from the artificial intelligence sector has absorbed additional capacity at major memory manufacturers.
Revised shipment outlook
The firm reduced its unit forecasts by 4% and 3% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, bringing those estimates to 1.14 billion units in 2026 and 1.17 billion units in 2027. These figures imply a 10% decline in shipments this year followed by 3% growth in 2027. By comparison, the bank's prior projection had suggested a 6% drop in the current year and a 2% rise the next.
Goldman Sachs also published a first estimate for 2028, forecasting shipments of 1.18 billion units, a 1% increase year-on-year.
Memory costs and AI-driven demand
The investment bank points squarely to rising memory chip prices as the principal factor behind the softer volume outlook. According to the bank, outsized demand from the artificial intelligence industry has reduced available supply as major memory chip manufacturers have redirected more production capacity to serve AI workloads. That dynamic has increased component costs for handset makers and, in Goldman Sachs' view, is weighing on consumer demand at the unit level.
Market value still projected to grow
Even as unit volumes were trimmed, Goldman Sachs expects total smartphone market value to increase. The bank forecasts a 3% rise to $596 billion in 2026, followed by 2% annual increases in both 2027 and 2028, reaching $606 billion and $621 billion, respectively. The expected revenue growth is driven by higher memory costs and a continued shift in product mix toward premium devices priced above $600, which would support overall dollar sales despite fewer units moving through the channel.
Vendor and segment forecasts
Goldman Sachs projects Apple will remain the global leader in smartphone shipments, forecasting 246 million units sold in 2026, with Samsung in second place at 235 million units for the same year.
The bank retained a constructive stance on foldable devices, noting the potential for new entrants among major brands in the second half of 2026 and new form factors such as tri-fold designs. Apple is expected, according to the bank's projection, to introduce its first foldable later in the year.
Despite that optimism, foldable shipment forecasts were scaled back by 10% for 2026 and 7% for 2027. Even with the cuts, Goldman Sachs still anticipates rising foldable penetration: 3.6% in 2026, 5.9% in 2027, and 6.8% in 2028, corresponding to 41 million, 69 million, and 80 million units, respectively.
Price-segment trends
Goldman Sachs expects the premium segment - defined as devices priced above $600 - to grow at a 5% compound annual rate through 2028. The bank forecasts premium volumes reaching 402 million units by 2028, representing 34% of total market volume, up from 29% in 2025.
By contrast, the mid-range segment, with prices between $200 and $600, is forecast to contract at a 2% annual rate as consumers take a more conservative stance amid a lack of major technology upgrades.
Entry-level smartphones priced below $200 are expected to register modest growth, supported by the migration from 4G to 5G networks in developing markets. However, Goldman Sachs notes that this price-sensitive segment is the most exposed to rising memory costs.
Implications
The bank's revisions underscore a divergence between unit demand and revenue, with component cost dynamics and product mix shifts favoring dollar growth even as volumes soften. The memory supply situation, influenced by AI demand and capacity allocation decisions at memory manufacturers, remains a central variable for handset makers and the broader mobile ecosystem.