Evercore ISI has moved Occidental Petroleum's rating up to Outperform from Underperform and increased its 12-month price target to $65 from $58. The brokerage framed the upgrade around the company's progress on lowering leverage and trimming operating costs, which it says have altered Occidental's free cash flow dynamics after a long stretch of underperformance versus peers.
According to Evercore, Occidental's active deleveraging and a structurally leaner cost base have improved the company's ability to convert commodity economics into cash available for shareholders. The firm highlighted that these changes allow Occidental to better capture benefits from the underlying crude oil market without relying on a substantial rise in prices.
Evercore further projects that the balance sheet improvements and enhanced capital efficiency create room for a return to shareholder distributions. Specifically, the broker raised the possibility that Occidental could resume share repurchases in the second half of 2028, contingent on the durability of the cash flow trajectory the company is building.
While acknowledging that Occidental's forecasted free cash flow per share growth through 2030 is expected to lag some larger exploration and production peers, Evercore emphasized the investment case as one based on a recovery from a deeply discounted valuation and on operational improvements rather than on superior production growth. The brokerage argued the market has not yet fully priced in the company's potential to generate higher free cash flow and to reinstate meaningful returns to shareholders.
Evercore pointed to several operational drivers that underpin its more constructive view. These include lower well costs, falling maintenance capital spending, and a resource base with long-life assets across U.S. onshore, enhanced oil recovery operations, the Gulf of America, and the Persian Gulf. These characteristics were cited as supportive of a more resilient long-term cash generation profile.
The upgrade signifies a change in the sell-side perception of Occidental after an extended period in which the company trailed its peers. Evercore's analysis rests on the durability of the company's efficiency gains and the financial flexibility afforded by a simpler capital structure, both of which the brokerage believes are underappreciated in current market pricing.
Analyst note: Evercore's revised rating and target reflect its view of sustainable deleveraging and cost improvements at Occidental, with potential implications for shareholder returns if the company executes on its cash generation plan.