Bank of America has elevated its view of Swiss semiconductor equipment supplier Comet Holding AG, moving the stock two notches from Underperform to Buy and increasing its price target to CHF518 from CHF286 - an 81% uplift. The upgrade reflects the bank's assessment that a renewed wave of NAND greenfield activity will disproportionately benefit Comet.
Shares of Comet jumped as much as 10% after the upgrade was published.
Comet is a direct supplier to Lam Research, which represents more than 40% of Comet's revenue. Because Lam is a leading provider of etch tools and Comet's matchboxes and vacuum capacitors are used extensively in etching equipment, BofA argues that Comet has greater exposure to NAND wafer fabrication expansion than many peers in the semiconductor equipment sector.
In its note, BofA states that NAND greenfield activity is finally accelerating, with visibility improving into the following year and beyond. The bank highlights several major fab programs that target production in 2028 and later - Micron Singapore, Samsung P5, and Samsung's Cheongju M17 - as primary catalysts underpinning its thesis. Given typical equipment order lead times of 6 to 12 months before fabs commence production, BofA expects these projects to start contributing to Comet's revenues as early as 2027.
Near-term additions to the pipeline, according to BofA, include expansions such as KIOXIA/Sandisk Kitakami and YMTC Wuhan Phase 3. Those programs, combined with the larger 2028+ announcements, form the greenfield wave that follows a period in 2024 and 2025 when industry spending centered primarily on NAND upgrades rather than on new wafer capacity.
BofA's global semiconductor team projects wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending growth of 23.5%, 31.4%, and 31.8% in calendar years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively. For NAND-specific WFE, the bank models increases of 19%, 30%, and 40% across those same years.
Reflecting the anticipated demand, BofA lifted its revenue forecasts for Comet in fiscal years 2026 through 2028 by 7% to 18%, led by the PCT division, and tightened up margin assumptions. Those changes produced a 13% to 57% rise in the firm's EBITDA estimates across the forecast horizon.
Under the revised model, BofA now projects Comet's EBITDA margin to nearly triple - rising from 10% in 2025 to 26% in 2028 - driven by shifts in product and regional mix and by high operating leverage. That margin expansion supports a projected roughly 70% EBITDA compound annual growth rate over the period, a notably aggressive profile among European semiconductor equipment companies.
Moreover, BofA's EBITDA forecasts for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are 5%, 10%, and 20% above consensus estimates, respectively, which the bank interprets as evidence that the broader market has not yet fully incorporated the NAND greenfield opportunity into expectations.
Beyond the firm's core PCT business, BofA pointed to two additional potential upside drivers. First, the Synertia product line is showing stronger order momentum and could amount to CHF100 million or more in sales by 2028 if the company secures the expected market share. Second, the CA20 product provides optionality tied to x-ray adoption in advanced packaging, offering another avenue for upside should adoption ramp as anticipated.
On production capability, BofA notes that Comet has capacity sufficient to support CHF1 billion in revenue by 2030, implying that supply constraints are not expected to be a binding limit over the forecast horizon.
Contextual note: The firm’s assessment rests on the timing of announced fab projects and on typical equipment order lead times translating into revenue beginning around 2027. The upgrade and forecast revisions reflect those assumptions.