BNP Paribas has upgraded Puig Brands, taking its recommendation from "neutral" to "outperform" and raising its price objective to €20.5 from €18.5.
Alongside the rating change for the ordinary shares, the firm also lifted its target for Puig Brands ADR to $11.7 from $10.8. BNP Paribas notes that the revised ADR target implies roughly 32% upside from a reference price of $8.9.
The latest research note follows an earlier upgrade this year when BNP Paribas first moved Puig to "outperform" after the company's IPO. In that prior analysis, the brokerage argued the stock's valuation was "a shadow of its former self," and that consensus estimates "had been materially recalibrated," while also pointing to a looming management change as a factor in market thinking.
"With the excitement of the abandoned Estee Lauder tie-up having now been digested, we rather get a sense of déjà vu," BNP Paribas said.
The brokerage questioned whether any fundamental changes have occurred at Puig, observing that the principal visible development was the controlling family’s "apparent willingness... to be more open to different ownership structures than we had historically assumed to be the case," a shift BNP Paribas described as "not a bad thing."
On underlying sales dynamics, BNP Paribas said its full-year 2026 estimate for like-for-like sales growth sits "c.60bp ahead of Bloomberg consensus," while also noting it remains "mindful of some notable H226 initiatives." The note underscored that valuation "tends to flow with the ups and downs of consensus" on like-for-like sales growth expectations.
Turning to profit metrics, BNP Paribas stated its earnings-per-share estimate for 2027 is "non material" for both Puig Brands ordinary shares and its ADR. For 2028, the brokerage projects earnings per share to be down 1% for both instruments.
Contextual takeaway - The adjustment in recommendation and targets by BNP Paribas is grounded in its view of updated consensus expectations, perceived valuation dislocation, and changes in ownership openness, while its near-term sales growth estimate remains modestly above consensus and EPS projections show limited movement for 2027-28.