Overview
Steve Eisman, known for his prominent short position ahead of the global financial crisis, told CNBC's "Fast Money" that the current artificial intelligence (AI) expansion rests in large part on the commercial success of two startups: OpenAI and Anthropic. Eisman said those two companies appear to account for roughly 70% of AI-related revenue at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet's Google and Oracle, and represent about 25% to 35% of cloud revenue at those firms.
Concentration risk in cloud AI
"The futures of these massive companies, in a sense, are a bet that OpenAI, Anthropic are going to succeed," Eisman said. His comments highlighted a concentration risk in the AI value chain, where a small number of third-party providers are responsible for a substantial portion of revenues tied to AI functionality sold by large cloud and software vendors.
Competitive threat from Chinese models
Eisman identified a potential competitive vulnerability: lower-cost AI models emerging from China. According to his remarks, Chinese open-weight and open-source models are cheaper to deploy and, based on what he is hearing, are beginning to take market share. "The Achilles' heel of this whole story ... is if something bad happens to Anthropic and OpenAI ... the Chinese open-end models, open-weight models are much cheaper. And if they start really taking a lot of market share and it sounds like, from what I'm hearing, that they're starting to, you could have a big price war. And then we have a problem," he said.
Other investor views
Separately, Michael Burry, another investor who gained attention for his role in the housing market episode depicted in "The Big Short," has moved toward a more bearish posture on parts of the AI ecosystem. Burry has questioned whether present and anticipated AI demand is being driven by genuine end-customer needs, suggesting that some of the activity may be financed through circular arrangements. Burry has also placed bearish bets against Nvidia and disclosed short positions tied to the broader semiconductor sector.
Market implications
- Large cloud vendors that have integrated OpenAI and Anthropic capabilities face concentrated exposure to the commercial fates of those startups.
- Lower-cost Chinese open models could compress pricing and cloud margins if they capture significant share.
- Investor skepticism about the underlying demand mix for AI services is influencing positions in semiconductors and related suppliers.
Conclusion
Eisman's remarks underline a structural risk in the current AI market: heavy reliance on a small set of model providers and the possibility that cheaper alternatives could erode revenue and pricing for major cloud vendors. At the same time, other investors have signaled caution about the sustainability of AI demand, particularly for hardware suppliers in the semiconductor sector.