Summary
Barclays projects that European NATO defense budgets will grow faster than any other region through 2035, reaching $752.60 billion a year by that date - up from $554.25 billion in 2025 and representing 3.1% of combined GDP. The bank singled out two contractors as preferred equity ideas while flagging shifts in equipment spending and national budgets across the continent.
Europe to lead growth in defense budgets
Barclays' analysis, published Tuesday, forecasts Europe will account for the fastest rise in defense budgets out to 2035. The broker's projection places combined NATO member spending in Europe at $752.60 billion by 2035, compared with $554.25 billion in 2025. That 2025 figure represented 3.1% of the region's combined GDP in Barclays' calculation.
The report cites data showing global defense expenditures of $2.77 trillion in 2025, a 3% increase year-on-year, using figures attributed to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Where the growth is coming from
Barclays' review of 2025 allocations indicates Europe led regional increases with a 16% rise in spending to $554.25 billion. In contrast, the United States saw its budget fall by 8% in real terms to $929 billion, while the rest of the world grew 6% to $1.1 trillion.
Within Europe, Germany was the largest single contributor to the incremental $75 billion rise in 2025, adding $20.58 billion - roughly 28% of the total increase. Spain followed with an additional $12 billion, and Poland and Italy each added about $8 billion, reflecting the uneven national contributions to the regional uptick.
Country-level GDP shares and budget paths
Barclays modelled a range of GDP-share trajectories. It put Germany on a path to reach 3.5% of GDP by 2029 and 3.8% by 2030, from a 2026 budget estimated at 2.7 billion. The report also noted an external comment from German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul that his government would spend more than 4% of GDP on defense in 2026 and "is on its way to 5%."
Poland is projected to be the first NATO member to reach 5% of GDP by 2028, up from 4.5% in 2025 in Barclays' forecast. The report additionally referenced national government figures showing Estonia and Lithuania already spending 5.4% and 5.38% of GDP respectively in 2026.
Equipment spending and its trajectory
The equipment share of NATO spending in Europe rose to 32% in 2025 compared with a 2014-25 average of 26%. Front-line states showed even higher equipment intensities, with Poland at 51% and Lithuania at 46%, according to NATO data cited in the report.
Barclays projected that European equipment spending will climb from $180 billion in 2025 to $277 billion by 2030, implying a 9.1% compound annual growth rate over that period.
Selected equity implications
Against this backdrop, Barclays identified two stocks as its top picks: Rheinmetall and Leonardo. Both were valued at 16x 2028 price-to-earnings in the broker's view, which the bank said represents an 8%-10% discount to a sector average P/E of 17.7x.
Rheinmetall was rated "overweight" and cited at a price of 1,199.80. Barclays highlighted the company's 38% revenue exposure to Germany, its best-in-class margins, optionality around mergers and acquisitions, and a projected 40% annual earnings growth rate over the next five years - the fastest forecasted in the sector.
Leonardo also carried an "overweight" rating and was cited at a price of 5.39. The broker noted superior earnings momentum for the firm, potential upside from portfolio rationalisation and record free cash flow conversion rates, with an 18% earnings growth forecast.
Sector comparisons and cycle analysis
Barclays drew a comparison to a previous U.S. defense enlargement phase, noting that American primes delivered a 21% earnings compound annual growth rate between 2004 and 2008, and that their shares outperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 71% cumulatively during that window. The bank suggested Europe may be in a "Stage 2" of a comparable cycle - a de-rating phase where spending acceleration precedes earnings and share-price recovery. Barclays observed that EU defense shares were down 16% from their January 2026 peak while the Eurostoxx 600 was up 1% over the same interval.
Regional and market exposure
The report noted that Middle East defense spending has risen at an 11% compound annual growth rate since 2022 to reach $216 billion, representing 7%-8% of global spending.
On company exposure, Barclays estimated BAE Systems carries the highest European exposure at roughly 10% of group revenue, followed by Leonardo at 7%, Thales at 6%, Rheinmetall and Saab at 5% each, and Hensoldt at 3%.
Implications for markets and investors
Barclays' analysis connects rising national budgets and a higher equipment share of spending to selective equity opportunities in European defense primes, while noting the potential timing mismatch between cash flows, earnings and market multiples as the cycle evolves.
Reporting note: The figures and forecasts quoted here are taken directly from Barclays' report and the data sources it cited.