Barclays on Tuesday signalled a more cautious view of parts of the Nordic telecom sector while also highlighting areas of resilience, according to a research note released by the bank. The firm said overall fundamentals in the region remain broadly healthy, but it identified a temporary pause in growth in Finland and Norway that may dampen performance in the second half of the year.
In its reassessment Barclays moved Telenor to an Underweight stance and promoted Telia to Equal Weight - shifts the bank said reflect different levels of exposure to the near-term pressures it sees across markets. Telenor shares were down 1.1% in Oslo trading by 08:08 GMT following the note.
Barclays lowered its price objective for Telenor to NOK 140 from NOK 160, pointing to a challenging outlook for the Norwegian operator. The bank noted that Telenor was the only EU telecom to issue a profit warning with its first-quarter results, a development Barclays views as indicative of a difficult second quarter ahead.
By contrast Barclays raised its target for Telia to SEK 51 from SEK 37, saying the Swedish operator's steady execution reduced the downside risk the bank had previously assigned. The ratings on Elisa and Tele2 were left at Equal Weight.
Finland and competitive pressures
Barclays highlighted Finland as the principal concern among Nordic markets. The bank estimates the Finnish market expanded by roughly 2% in 2025, a slowdown from historical growth rates of 3-5%. Barclays attributes the weaker growth to rapid fibre rollout, which the bank says is cannibalising fixed wireless access subscriptions, combined with intensifying competitive dynamics.
Barclays also pointed to strategic moves by Telia in Finland. The bank said Telia's repositioning as a challenger after years of market share losses has driven elevated promotional activity and placed pressure on average revenue per user, or ARPU, across the three Finnish operators. "This is unlikely to change in the coming quarters and we expect it to hold back momentum at all of Elisa, Telenor and Telia," analysts led by Maurice Patrick wrote.
Outlook for Telenor
For Telenor specifically, Barclays expects EBITDA to turn negative in the second quarter. The bank cited tough year-on-year comparisons in Norway, ongoing pressure in Finland, and headwinds from operations in Bangladesh as factors weighing on Telenor's near-term profitability. "We see 2Q26 as set to deteriorate further, with an unresolved complex equity story," the analysts wrote.
Sweden, Norway and Tele2
Barclays painted a brighter picture for Sweden and Norway. The bank noted Norway's total end-user revenues reached NOK 41.43 billion in 2025, up 3% year-on-year, and said sector capital expenditure has fallen sharply as operators shift from network build-out to monetisation. Sweden delivered steady low-to-mid single-digit growth across operators, Barclays added, and the bank sees potential upside from fixed-line wholesale regulation as well as the prospect of mobile market consolidation from four operators to three.
Tele2 remained Barclays' core Overweight pick, supported by exposure to Sweden and the Baltics and the potential for M&A upside. Barclays did flag near-term uncertainty tied to a CEO transition at Tele2.
Overall, Barclays' note underscores a mixed picture: pockets of weakness centred in Finland and some operational risk for Telenor, alongside structural and regulatory opportunities in Sweden and a more constructive outlook for Tele2's asset mix.