Americans surveyed in a nationwide Reuters/Ipsos online poll said the Democratic Party is better equipped to manage the U.S. economy than the Republican Party, marking the first time in nearly a decade that Democrats have held that advantage when respondents were offered a neutral option. The same poll, taken Wednesday through Monday, recorded a drop in President Donald Trump’s overall approval to 35% from 37% in the previous Reuters/Ipsos survey.
The shift in economic confidence is narrow but notable. When asked which party has the stronger approach to the economy, 37% of registered voters chose the Democratic Party while 36% selected the Republican Party. A further 27% said they were unsure or believed another party would do a better job. Republicans had maintained an edge on economic stewardship through most of Trump’s first term, throughout President Joe Biden’s four years in office, and into Trump’s current term. A Reuters/Ipsos poll that ended in May 2017 had shown a Democratic advantage under a differently worded question that did not offer an unsure option.
Deteriorating Republican advantage
The Republican advantage on the economy has steadily eroded during President Trump’s present term, narrowing in recent months to effectively zero. The poll and accompanying analysis point to mounting pressure on household finances following a significant rise in gasoline prices after the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in February and the ongoing war that followed. According to the poll, gasoline prices have increased by more than 25% since the conflict began, leaving Americans on average paying more than one dollar extra per gallon at the pump.
The poll report notes President Trump has said he ordered those strikes and the subsequent actions to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, to reduce Iran’s ability to attack regional rivals, and to create political conditions that could lead Iranians to overthrow their clerical rulers.
Electoral implications and current vote intentions
On the ballot question of congressional preference, the Reuters/Ipsos survey found 42% of registered voters would cast their congressional vote for a Democrat if the election were held now, while 37% would back a Republican. Independent voters in the poll favored Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 12 percentage points. Republicans are defending slim congressional majorities going into the November 3 midterm elections.
While these national numbers sketch the prevailing political mood, the path to congressional control will be shaped by a relatively small set of competitive races. Of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, roughly three dozen are expected to be competitive, and about eight Senate seats are expected to be competitive. That distribution means national-level polling may not map directly onto final congressional outcomes.
President's response
President Trump has repeatedly cast doubt on broad polling that shows public dissatisfaction with his leadership. Ahead of the release of the Reuters/Ipsos poll, he posted on his Truth Social account: "My REAL Polling Numbers, not those made up by the Fake News Media, are the best they have ever been."
Methodology
The Reuters/Ipsos poll collected responses from 4,505 U.S. adults and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The survey was conducted online and nationwide, and its findings reflect the views of registered voters and the broader adult population included in the sample.
The results highlight a close national contest over economic credibility between the two major parties and a drop in presidential approval that brings the current rating within one percentage point of the lowest level recorded during this term. The poll underscores how changes in household costs, particularly for gasoline, are factoring into public assessments of economic stewardship as voters look toward the midterm elections.