Overview
TenneT warned on Wednesday that the Netherlands is likely to face rising risks to electricity supply security beginning in 2030, and that the situation could become acute by the middle of the next decade. The grid operator said projected shortage hours could reach levels markedly above the country’s reliability benchmark unless action is taken.
Projected shortfall vs. reliability standard
According to TenneT, expected shortage hours could climb to between 37 and 46 hours per year by 2035. That range far surpasses the Dutch reliability standard, which allows for a maximum average of four shortage hours annually. The operator framed this projected deterioration as a substantial deviation from the established norm for supply security.
Drivers of the deterioration
TenneT attributed the risk primarily to two interacting trends. First, electrification is pushing electricity demand higher. Second, flexible power capacity from gas and coal plants is declining in the Netherlands and in neighbouring countries. While production from solar, wind and batteries is expected to increase, and demand-side flexibility will also grow, the operator said these resources will not fully offset the combination of rising demand and shrinking thermal generation, particularly during prolonged shortage periods.
Imports and domestic capacity needs
The operator expects the Netherlands’ reliance on electricity imports during shortage episodes to grow markedly. TenneT’s projections indicate imports could rise from around 1 gigawatt in 2028 to nearly 9 gigawatts in 2035. Domestic additional production capacity that appears needed in 2030 is relatively small at about 0.4 gigawatts, but that requirement could expand to roughly 3.7 gigawatts if neighbouring countries do not take measures to secure their own supplies.
Policy recommendation
To address these projected shortfalls, TenneT recommended that the economy ministry introduce a capacity mechanism starting in the winter of 2029-2030. The operator described such a scheme as one that would remunerate providers of backup power or enable coordinated reductions in demand when supply is constrained.
Limitations
The operator’s projections and recommendations reflect its assessment of supply and demand trends; the article reports those assessments without adding analysis beyond the information TenneT provided.