Islamabad, June 11 - Pakistan's annual economic survey projects real GDP growth of 3.7% for the fiscal year ending June 2026, according to the report released on Thursday. The document details macroeconomic outcomes and fiscal trends through the March and April reporting windows, and offers a snapshot of price developments into May.
The survey reports that average consumer price index inflation was 6.7% in the July-May period, and states that price stability was broadly preserved despite the Gulf conflict and its impact on energy prices. The report frames inflation as moderate over the review period.
External sector metrics in the survey show a contained current account deficit and a significant trade gap. The current account deficit was recorded at $252 million in the July-April timeframe. Separately, the country's trade deficit from July to March was reported as $23.53 billion, reflecting the balance between imports and exports through that nine-month span.
On public finances, the survey highlights a markedly improved fiscal stance. The fiscal deficit for the July-March period was reported at 0.7% of GDP, which the report characterises as the strongest fiscal performance in decades. The primary balance recorded a surplus equivalent to 3.2% of GDP. Public debt by the end of March was listed at 83,285 billion rupees.
Overall, the survey describes fiscal performance as encouraging and attributes the improvement to a combination of expenditure control, revenue mobilisation, surpluses at the provincial level, and the continuation of fiscal reforms. These policies, the report indicates, underpinned the stronger-than-usual public finance outcomes through the March reporting date.
The survey presents a compact set of headline figures without projecting additional detail beyond the numbers cited for inflation, the current account, trade, fiscal balances and public debt. Where the report notes external pressures, it explicitly links them to the Gulf conflict and the resulting effects on energy prices, while maintaining that price stability was largely maintained over the review period.
Key figures from the survey
- Real GDP growth projected at 3.7% for FY26.
- Average CPI inflation at 6.7% in July-May.
- Current account deficit of $252 million in July-April.
- Trade deficit of $23.53 billion from July to March.
- Fiscal deficit at 0.7% of GDP in July-March; primary surplus of 3.2% of GDP; public debt at 83,285 billion rupees by end-March.
The survey's compilation of these indicators forms the basis for the report's overall assessment that macroeconomic stability and fiscal consolidation were sustained over the review period.