The National Bank of Poland held its principal interest rate at 3.75% on Wednesday, a decision that the Monetary Policy Council said reflects concern about upward pressures on inflation stemming from higher commodity and energy prices.
The Council's action matched the expectations of all 29 economists surveyed by Reuters, who had forecast no change to the policy rate for September.
Recent inflation data showed annual consumer price inflation accelerated to 3.4% in August, a reading that exceeded analyst forecasts and moved close to the top of the central bank's target interval of 1.5% to 3.5%.
Rafal Benecki, Chief Economist at ING in Poland, warned that "the balance of risks to inflation has shifted upwards." Benecki pointed to rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and the prospect of higher energy costs in 2027 as reasons the central bank should remain cautious.
On outlooks, Benecki suggested inflation could reach 4% in the coming months and said he expects interest rates to remain at current levels for several quarters ahead.
Analysts also highlighted the role of fiscal policy as a constraint on any near-term easing of monetary policy. The draft budget for 2027 projects the general government deficit-to-GDP ratio will be 7.1% next year, compared with 7.3% in 2025, a trajectory that market observers say may limit space for the central bank to loosen policy.
Context and implications
The decision to pause on a rate change reflects the central bank's focus on risks that could push inflation above target. With commodity and energy prices cited explicitly by the central bank and independent analysts, price-setting in energy-intensive sectors and household utility bills are among the transmission channels that could affect headline inflation and the policy outlook.
Policymakers and market participants will be watching incoming oil and energy price developments, and the fiscal plans embedded in the 2027 draft budget, for signals on whether the current stance will be reassessed.