Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,935 total articles
S&P Global Ratings cautions that the Middle East war risks ending a period of net credit-rating upgrades across emerging markets, as disruptions to oil shipping have pushed crude prices sharply higher. The spike in energy costs has immediate implications for importers and exporters alike, with rising inflation and tighter financing conditions poten…
Barclays cautions that investors appear to be tilting toward higher odds of Federal Reserve rate hikes despite recent commodity-driven inflationary pressures. Analyst Jonathan Millar argues that the market is assigning roughly a 25% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase by December, a stance the bank views as premature without clear, sustai…
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak to an introductory macroeconomics class at Harvard University as policymakers and markets weigh how to respond to simultaneous inflationary pressure and slowing growth stemming from the Iran war and rising fuel prices. The situation poses a classic central-bank dilemma: tighten to restrain inflation an…
As oil and gasoline prices climb following the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, policymakers at the Federal Reserve are monitoring signs that household and market measures of inflation expectations may be slipping from the 2% anchor. Recent weak Treasury auctions, higher U.S. yields and a jump in one-year consumer expectations have intensified deba…
U.S. stock index futures opened higher on Monday in a holiday-shortened trading week after steep losses the previous session, as investors continued to digest the widening Middle East conflict. Renewed fighting and comments from global leaders have driven oil and commodity prices higher, lifting energy and aluminum stocks in premarket trade, even a…
Nvidia’s price-to-earnings multiple has dropped to its lowest level since early 2019 as investors reel from geopolitical fears tied to the Middle East and questions about the timing of returns from heavy AI infrastructure spending. The pullback has erased roughly $800 billion from the company’s market value even as gross margins have expanded and a…
JPMorgan's equity strategy team argues that while rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions have revived memories of 2022, several material differences in wage trends, central bank positioning, consumer dynamics, European growth and energy infrastructure make a repeat of 2022-style stagflation unlikely.
The ongoing Iran conflict, now entering a second month, continues to reshape energy flows and investor sentiment as the first quarter ends. Oil prices have jumped well above pre-war levels, while trading eyes remain fixed on both diplomatic signals from Washington and a slate of U.S. economic data—including manufacturing activity and the March jobs…
The first quarter ends under intense geopolitical strain as the Iran conflict reshapes market priorities. A sharp rise in energy prices, large equity losses, and sudden shifts in safe-haven flows have left investors recalibrating risk and policy expectations. In the coming week markets will focus on U.S. payrolls, South Korea trade data, and a flas…
A Bank of Japan staff analysis cautions that recent increases in crude oil prices and a weaker yen could exert stronger upward pressure on Japan's underlying inflation than in the past, in part because companies have grown more active in raising prices and wages. The BOJ describes how it measures underlying inflation, reports inflation expectations…
Policymakers across the Asia-Pacific are grappling with a rapid energy shock from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran that is hitting the region harder and sooner than many other parts of the world. With Asia taking about 80% of oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz and analysts warning shortages will intensify through April and May, authorities…
Spain has ordered its airspace closed to U.S. military aircraft conducting operations against Iran, a measure that goes further than its prior refusal to permit U.S. use of jointly operated military bases. The restriction requires U.S. planes to route around Spanish airspace except in emergencies and reflects Madrid's stated refusal to participate …
An analysis published by economists at the European Central Bank finds that foreign exporters are absorbing only a small fraction of recent U.S. tariff increases. The study tracks tariff changes from January to November 2025 and shows roughly 95% pass-through of tariff costs to U.S. import prices, substantial declines in import volumes, and a prono…
Preliminary March inflation readings from four large German states show consumer prices rising to at least 2.5% year-on-year, reflecting sharp energy-driven price pressures linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The state-level increases make it likely that Germany's national harmonised inflation rate will tick higher when official figures are pub…
Morgan Stanley has moved to a more defensive allocation, lowering its view on global equities to equal weight and boosting exposure to cash and U.S. Treasuries. The firm cited elevated uncertainty about the scale and persistence of oil supply disruption stemming from the Middle East conflict, noting dramatic recent moves in Brent crude and warning …
U.S. equity futures rose modestly as investors weighed a widening conflict in the Middle East now in its second month. Reports of U.S. troop movements and a contemplated operation to remove uranium from Iran coincided with President Donald Trump saying talks with Tehran could be progressing. Brent crude climbed above $108 a barrel and safe-haven go…
An article in the European Central Bank's Economic Bulletin concludes that U.S. consumers and domestic importers absorb the bulk of the financial burden from recent U.S. tariffs, while trade volumes contract and exporters experience secondary negative effects. The ECB quantifies current and potential future cost shares and estimates a sizeable drop…
European equities were largely unchanged as traders awaited Germany’s CPI and HICP releases and monitored renewed escalation in the Middle East, which has pushed oil prices higher and intensified inflation concerns. Defensive sectors led declines while miners and some exporters reacted to operational updates and weather-related disruptions.
A sharp decline in vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz has choked seaborne energy and fertiliser movements, sending crude prices sharply higher and lifting freight and insurance costs, India’s March 2026 Monthly Economic Review said. The report warns this shock is transmitting through energy and logistics channels and could slow growth whi…
The Reserve Bank of India’s surprise move to limit banks’ net open rupee positions to $100 million provided a short-lived lift to the rupee, but bankers warn the restriction will depress trading revenues and that broader economic pressures tied to oil imports and regional conflict could undo any sustained currency recovery.
S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed its A+/A-1 sovereign rating on Japan while warning that a deeper depreciation of the yen and persistently weaker economic growth relative to other high-income economies could lead to a downgrade. The firm also flagged the possibility of a wider fiscal deficit over the next two years because of increased spending on…
Brent crude jumped above $115 a barrel, putting the benchmark on track for an unprecedented monthly gain and fueling broad equity weakness in Asia. Renewed attacks in the Gulf region, widening to southern routes, and a significant U.S. troop presence have elevated the risk of prolonged disruptions to oil flows. Markets are pricing sustained high pr…
The conflict in Iran has triggered a surge in market volatility that has strained liquidity across the globe's largest markets. Traders and investors report slower executions, wider bid-ask spreads and a preference to reduce position sizes as market makers become wary of being left with large, risky holdings. European futures and government bond ma…
On March 30, New Zealand's finance minister said Treasury modelling indicates inflation may climb 'much higher' this year and remain outside the Reserve Bank's 1% to 3% target band if the conflict in the Middle East continues and further disrupts supply chains. Fourth-quarter inflation was 3.1%, already above the target range, and rising energy cos…
Negotiations at a World Trade Organization ministerial in Yaounde concluded without agreement after Brazil objected to proposals to prolong a moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions. The WTO Director-General said the moratorium had expired and that negotiators would continue discussions in Geneva, but delegates and business leader…
