Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,188 total articles
A new chapter in the International Monetary Fund's Global Financial Stability report finds that portfolio investors - including hedge funds, pension funds and insurers - now account for roughly 80% of foreign financing into emerging market debt, up from about half two decades ago. While large inflows of nearly $4 trillion have lowered borrowing cos…
Danone's chief executive Antoine de Saint-Affrique told CNBC that the ongoing conflict involving Iran is creating inflationary pressure that could translate into higher food prices. He said the company has not yet implemented price increases and stressed the near-term outlook depends on how the next two to four weeks of the conflict unfold.
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said Tuesday he expects inflation to be roughly 2.75% in 2026, with ongoing war-related effects keeping headline inflation higher. Speaking in a Bloomberg TV interview, Williams signaled that underlying inflation should ease later this year, described monetary policy as properly positioned, and reduc…
U.S. equity futures moved lower as market participants parsed developments in the Middle East that suggest a risk of escalation ahead of a presidential deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Reports of strikes on Iran's oil-export hub and warnings from Iran's Revolutionary Guards about potential infrastructure attacks that could disrupt energy su…
Russian Urals crude reached its loftiest price in more than 13 years amid a global oil rally tied to Iran, with benchmark levels at Baltic and Black Sea export terminals rising sharply. The spike has pushed Urals well above the price Russia assumed in its budget and narrowed the discount to Brent, while delivery premiums into India have widened. Di…
Poland has launched a three-tranche, dollar-denominated bond sale - its first return to dollar markets since the outbreak of war in Iran - offering 5-, 10- and 30-year benchmarks. Initial pricing indications put the 5-year around 95 basis points over U.S. Treasuries and the 30-year near 160 basis points. The finance ministry named four global banks…
Two government sources say India currently sees no immediate threat to its fiscal deficit target for the financial year that started April 1, while weighing targeted austerity steps to offset rising commodity-driven costs. Officials emphasise protecting capital spending on roads, railways and airports even as higher global oil prices and reduced ex…
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Chinese Premier Li Qiang spoke by phone to coordinate on energy security amid disruptions to global markets caused by the Iran war. Both sides committed to increased high-level dialogue to support regional energy stability, with Australia signalling continued cooperation on shared interests and a willi…
Several Western and Saudi companies in Riyadh have prolonged work-from-home guidance this week for employees in key business districts, citing safety concerns tied to a looming U.S.-imposed deadline for Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. The advisories affect multiple office hubs that host major U.S. banks, global tech firms and Saudi institutions. Sa…
UBS Global Wealth Management reduced its 2026 S&P 500 targets on concerns that persistently higher oil prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict could slow U.S. growth and sustain inflation pressures. The firm cut its year-end and mid-year index forecasts, delayed its expected timetable for Federal Reserve rate cuts, but left its 2026 S&P 5…
BofA Global Research expects the euro area to avert a recession despite a significant energy-driven shock, but has downgraded growth and pushed out the timeline for inflation falling back toward target. Elevated Brent and TTF gas price assumptions underpin the downgrade, while constrained fiscal support and a drawdown in household savings are expec…
Japan's coincident indicator index declined 1.6 points month-on-month in February to 116.3, the first fall in two months, driven largely by reduced shipments of semiconductor chips and chip-making equipment and lower auto production. The data calls into question the Bank of Japan's view that strong global demand will continue to underpin exports, a…
Bankers expect India's central bank to allow overnight interbank rates to linger close to the lower bound of the policy corridor and to refrain from active liquidity-draining operations in April. The shift reflects a desire to avoid unsettling already fragile government bond sentiment amid higher oil prices and rupee volatility tied to the Iran con…
China's State Council published supply chain security regulations that took effect immediately, authorizing Chinese authorities to investigate and impose countermeasures on foreign entities judged to threaten national supply chains. The rules, reported by Xinhua, seek to shore up security in industrial and supply chains across key sectors, address …
The Kremlin reported a significant increase in inquiries for Russian energy supplies as it characterizes the international situation as a mounting economic and energy crisis. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that market conditions have shifted dramatically and that Russia is negotiating sales from alternative buyers while seeking term…
UBS has reduced its economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone, cutting its 2026 GDP outlook by 0.5 percentage points to 0.8% and trimming 2027 by 0.2 points to 1.2%, while keeping the 2028 projection at 1.0%. The bank points to the ongoing Iran conflict as a central factor that could push inflation higher, prompt tighter monetary policy, and furth…
Government data show Japan's coincident economic indicator slipped in February, driven by weaker semiconductor and auto shipments. Private research reports a sharp rise in bankruptcies among small painting firms as fuel and naphtha disruptions push input costs sharply higher, flagging early signs of damage from the Iran war.
Annual consumer price growth in the Philippines accelerated to 4.1% in March, surpassing the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' 2% to 4% goal. The rise was led by a sharp rebound in transport costs tied to global energy prices amid heightened Middle East tensions. Core inflation also ticked up, prompting the central bank to signal close monitoring ahead …
Greater Toronto Area home transactions rose in March for the first time since September, as seasonally adjusted sales increased 1.4% to 4,546 units. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported that the board’s home price index fell 0.6% month-over-month to C$928,000, marking the 10th straight monthly decline. Year-over-year, sales were up 1.7% …
British services companies reported a steep month-on-month increase in input costs in March and a slowdown in activity, according to S&P Global data. The services PMI fell to 50.5 from 53.9, while the composite PMI was revised down to 50.3. Firms attributed higher costs to energy, raw materials and shipping, and expressed growing concern about dema…
U.S. equity futures slipped and oil prices held above $110 a barrel as President Donald Trump set a firm deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on infrastructure. Investors weighed geopolitical risk alongside mixed U.S. services data and private credit concerns. In corporate news, Broadcom surged after announcing a long-te…
Kenya's private-sector activity dipped into contraction in March, with the Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers' Index falling to 47.7 from 50.4 in February. The decline, the first below the 50 growth threshold since August 2025, was driven by weaker customer spending, reduced cash circulation and higher transport costs linked to the war in the M…
South Africa’s S&P Global PMI climbed to 50.8 in March from 50.0 in February, signaling a return to private-sector growth driven by faster output and the strongest hiring since May 2024. The recovery was muted by a second consecutive monthly decline in new orders and a sharp fall in export sales, while business confidence slipped to its weakest lev…
Seiji Adachi, a former member of the Bank of Japan board, told Reuters that the central bank will likely raise its short-term policy rate by July as rising oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict increase inflationary pressure. Adachi noted underlying inflation has met the BOJ's 2% goal and cited corporate five-year inflation expectations of 2.…
European Central Bank policymaker Dimitar Radev warned that euro zone inflation expectations may respond faster than in previous episodes, driven by a recent energy shock tied to the Iran war. He said the ECB should be ready to raise interest rates swiftly if persistent second-round effects appear, while monitoring a range of indicators ahead of up…
