Economy June 18, 2026 05:42 AM

Futures Rebound as U.S.-Iran Interim Pact and Intel Rally Offset Fed Hawkishness

Technology stocks lead a premarket recovery while investors weigh a new Fed chair's hawkish tone and higher odds of future rate moves

By Priya Menon
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U.S. stock index futures climbed on Friday as optimism about an interim U.S.-Iran agreement and a jump in Intel shares helped reverse losses from the previous session. Gains in technology names were balanced against renewed investor concern over possible Fed rate increases after comments from new Chair Kevin Warsh and hawkish projections from policymakers.

Futures Rebound as U.S.-Iran Interim Pact and Intel Rally Offset Fed Hawkishness
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Key Points

  • Technology sector led premarket gains, highlighted by Intel rising 9.3% after news of a U.S.-based chip collaboration with Apple; Nvidia, Micron and Marvell also rose.
  • Market pricing of Fed moves shifted higher - a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in September, up from 27% on Wednesday - following hawkish remarks from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other policymakers.
  • Geopolitical developments and lower oil prices supported sentiment: an interim U.S.-Iran agreement extended the April ceasefire by 60 days and oil fell to a more than three-month low, tempering inflation worries.

June 18 - U.S. stock index futures recovered on Friday after a selloff in the previous session, driven in part by renewed optimism over an interim agreement between the United States and Iran and a sharp premarket rise in Intel shares.

Intel climbed 9.3% in premarket trading after U.S. President Donald Trump said Apple had agreed to collaborate with the chipmaker to design and manufacture its chips in the U.S. Other technology names also moved higher, with Nvidia up about 1% and both Micron and Marvell Technology adding roughly 4% each.

All three benchmark indexes had dropped on Thursday as investors priced in the possibility of Fed rate hikes following remarks from new Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing the need to rein in inflation, alongside projections from other policymakers pointing to higher interest rates later in the year. Markets are currently pricing in a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, up from a 27% probability on Wednesday.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said: "The combination of a new chair regime, hawkish projections, and a wide dispersion of views implies a higher bar for near-term action in either direction. In our view, this points to an extended period of policy on hold, with meaningful adjustments more likely once the task force process is complete, and the committee has greater clarity on the economic outlook."

At 05:01 a.m. ET, futures were higher across the board: Dow E-minis were up 199 points, or 0.38%; S&P 500 E-minis gained 54 points, or 0.72%; and Nasdaq 100 E-minis rose 403.25 points, or 1.36%.

Sentiment was further supported by the release of the text of an interim agreement said to have been signed by the presidents of the United States and Iran to end the war, extending the April ceasefire by another 60 days to allow the two sides to reach a final deal. At the same time, the slide in oil prices to a more than three-month low kept alive hopes that inflation could be contained without additional interest-rate hikes.

Economic data released on Thursday showed U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in May, with households buying more cars and other vehicles even as they paid higher prices at the pump. Those figures, paired with a resilient economic backdrop and a rally broadening beyond technology shares, helped markets regain ground after an early-June slump.

The Nasdaq and the blue-chip Dow were on track to finish the week higher for a second straight week ahead of the Juneteenth holiday.


Other early movers included Rumble, which jumped 16.2% after rebranding to RUM Group and completing its acquisition of German AI cloud company Northern Data. Smith & Wesson shares surged 16.6% after the company reported a fourth-quarter increase in sales.

For investors assessing individual names such as Intel, valuation tools are sometimes cited; one such Fair Value calculator described in market commentary uses a mix of 17 industry valuation models to gauge stocks' fundamentals.

Overall, Friday's premarket gains reflected a balance between geopolitical relief and persistent concerns about tighter monetary policy, with market participants monitoring both the path of inflation and signals from the Fed closely.

Risks

  • Hawkish comments from the new Fed chair and policymakers increase the risk of future rate hikes, which could pressure interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and financials.
  • Uncertainty over the ultimate course of monetary policy - the Fed may remain on hold until the task force process concludes and economic clarity improves - could sustain market volatility.
  • Although oil prices have fallen, inflation dynamics remain uncertain; persistent inflation could force tighter policy, affecting consumer spending and sectors exposed to higher borrowing costs.

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