Futures tied to Canada's resource-heavy main index climbed in early trading on Tuesday as traders digested renewed reports of attacks in the Middle East alongside ongoing debate about how long the artificial intelligence-led investment cycle will support lofty tech valuations.
By 07:06 ET (11:06 GMT), the standard futures contract for the S&P/TSX 60 index was up 6 points, or about 0.3%. The prior session had seen the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index slip by 0.18% to 35,212.32 points, a pullback that reflected a decline in metal mining shares and a drop in energy stocks after oil prices eased following an OPEC+ agreement to raise output targets from August.
Commodities and geopolitical developments
Oil pushed higher on Tuesday after reports of new attacks on ships in and around the strategically sensitive Strait of Hormuz. By 04:41 ET, Brent crude futures - the global benchmark - had risen 0.9% to $72.61 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 0.7% at $69.03 a barrel.
According to reporting cited in the market commentary, Iran's military fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, an episode that reportedly ended a week-long pause in strikes that had been observed under a U.S.-Iran understanding. The same reporting cited two U.S. officials who said the United States is likely to respond with strikes against Iranian targets.
Earlier, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency said it received a report from a tanker traveling south near the Omani coast that it had been struck by an unidentified projectile, resulting in a fire. Iran has not issued an official claim about the incident, though anonymous sources quoted by Iranian state television were reported to have suggested the attack was aimed at a tanker carrying natural gas from Qatar.
Market commentary in the original coverage notes that crude prices had broadly retreated following an interim ceasefire deal between Washington and Tehran in June, returning to levels seen before the conflict escalated. The reporting also recalled that after the onset of the conflict in late February, oil surged above $110 a barrel at one point, stoking concerns over a possible global burst of inflation.
Gold softens as yields and the dollar firm
Gold prices moved lower on Tuesday, as investors positioned ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting later in the week. At 05:30 ET, spot gold was reported down about 0.6% at $4,140.89 an ounce, and gold futures were indicated down roughly 0.4% at $4,153.41 an ounce.
A strengthening U.S. dollar, aided by a rise in the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to a two-week high, was cited as a factor weighing on bullion. A firmer greenback typically makes gold more expensive for overseas purchasers and can detract from demand.
"[Foreign exchange] volatility may stay capped ahead of tomorrow's FOMC minutes and given a rather empty U.S. data calendar today," analysts at ING said in a note, as quoted in the market coverage.
The coverage reiterated that much of the market's attention this week will be on the minutes from the Fed's June policy meeting. At that gathering, the central bank left its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, although several officials indicated that an additional rate increase could be possible later this year.
U.S. futures mixed; tech remains the focal point
U.S. stock futures were trading around the flatline by midmorning in North America. By 07:22 ET, Dow futures had risen about 136 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures were off by roughly 15 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were lower by about 298 points, or 1.0%.
On Monday, the main averages on Wall Street advanced, with the reporting noting that the Dow moved above the 53,000 level for the first time. The session's gains were led by a rally in technology names, particularly chipmakers, after a rebound in the sector. Investors reacted to several company-specific developments as well as broader optimism about demand for the computing and memory hardware that supports artificial intelligence workloads.
Chipmakers such as Advanced Micro Devices and Western Digital were singled out for strong moves. Broadcom also rose after news that it will partner with iPhone-maker Apple to develop new custom chips. The Philadelphia semiconductor index, which tracks the sector, rebounded after a prior decline.
Market participants continue to debate the long-term viability of very large spending programs tied to AI, but demand for high-end memory chips and data-center equipment remains robust, according to the reporting. In an illustration of the volatility of investor expectations, Samsung Electronics reported preliminary quarterly operating profit that was almost 20 times higher than the year-earlier period - operating profit of 89.4 trillion won versus 4.7 trillion won in the corresponding quarter one year earlier. The reporting also noted that the total surpassed income generated in 2024 and 2025 combined.
Despite the eye-catching profit figure, Samsung's stock fell more than 6% in Seoul trading, reflecting the extremely high expectations investors have for chipmakers and the broader AI theme. Analysts at Vital Knowledge were quoted as saying the tech sector was facing "a fresh bout of doubt and pain this morning," and the coverage noted that chip shares sold off globally on Tuesday.
Monetary policy backdrop and market expectations
The Fed minutes due later in the week are expected to receive close scrutiny. The June meeting left policy rates unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, but several officials forecasted that a hike could still be delivered this year. The coverage repeated that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has emphasized he does not want the central bank to provide forward guidance on rates, while also remarking that he has noted energy-driven inflation pressures appear to have eased.
Analysts at Neuberger were cited as saying the market remains divided over the Fed's likely path for interest rates under Chair Warsh. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders see about a 56% probability of a rate increase as soon as September, a decline from a roughly 60% chance that was priced in before the release of softer-than-anticipated employment data last week.
Geopolitics, political developments and investor focus
Beyond monetary policy and earnings, the reporting highlighted geopolitical developments and political events that could sway markets. Investors were advised to monitor President Donald Trump's trip to Turkey for a NATO summit scheduled to begin on Tuesday. The coverage noted that Mr. Trump has been at odds with Washington's European allies, particularly regarding the war in Iran.
The reporting quoted Mr. Trump saying the U.S. would either secure a long-term peace deal with Iran or "finish the job," language that observers interpreted as keeping military options on the table. The coverage also stated that Iran adopted a defiant posture during the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was reported to have been killed by strikes at the outset of the conflict in late February.
Corporate calendar and market-moving events
Corporate earnings will also feature prominently this week. The coverage listed Levi's Strauss & Co, PepsiCo, and Delta Air Lines as among the firms scheduled to report quarterly results. Separately, the inclusion of SpaceX in the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday was expected to generate elevated trading volumes, and to bring additional attention to market activity around the AI-related technology complex.
Conclusion
Early trading in Canada and the broader North American session suggested a cautious market tone, with modest gains in TSX futures offset by mixed U.S. futures, rising crude following renewed reports of strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and weakening gold ahead of key Fed minutes. Technology names and semiconductor firms remained the central focus of investor attention, even as the sector displayed rapid swings in sentiment around fresh earnings and profit announcements.