President Donald Trump’s approval rating declined to 31%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday, marking the lowest recorded level of approval in either of his presidential terms. The four-day online survey found the rating fell by one percentage point from a poll conducted two weeks earlier.
The poll also captured voter preferences for the upcoming congressional elections. In a so-called generic ballot question - which asks which party respondents would choose if the elections were held today - 47% of registered voters in the nationwide survey selected Democrats, while 35% chose Republicans. That 12-point Democratic advantage is the largest gap recorded over the current election cycle.
Respondents cited worries about high gasoline prices and signaled an inclination to vote against the Republican Party in the November 3 congressional elections. The size of the Democratic lead in the generic ballot could strengthen Democratic prospects for taking control of the US House of Representatives and the US Senate.
For Republicans, losing control of either chamber would present complications for the president’s agenda during the final two years of his term. The survey text also raised the question of which policy areas would be most affected by a change in control of one or both chambers of Congress, without identifying specific outcomes.
While generic ballot polls offer a snapshot of national sentiment about which party voters prefer to see in charge of Congress, they do not capture the detailed state-by-state and district-by-district dynamics that ultimately determine control of the House and Senate. The poll release noted that Republicans retain some structural advantages in those contests.
The online survey collected responses from 1,679 US adults, including 1,279 registered voters. The results carried a margin of error of 2 percentage points for all respondents and 3 points for the registered voter subsample.
Methodology and limits
The poll was conducted online over four days and reports margins of error specific to the two groups cited. Observers should note that national generic ballot figures do not substitute for the varied and localized electoral contests that determine congressional outcomes.
What this means going forward
The combination of a record-low presidential approval rating and a double-digit generic ballot lead for Democrats underscores electoral vulnerability for the president's party as the midterm elections approach. At the same time, the poll’s national focus and acknowledged Republican structural advantages in individual races indicate uncertainty over how those national trends will translate into actual seat changes in November.