India saw a notable monthly uptick in crude oil arrivals in September, with imports totaling 22.26 million metric tons - a 16% increase from August - according to government figures released on Friday. That volume was also 9% above the 20.35 million tons imported in September of the previous year, the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell said.
While crude inflows expanded, movements in refined products showed a contrasting pattern. Oil product imports decreased 0.8% from August but were down by about 40% compared with the same month last year. At the same time, product exports rose by more than 6% year-on-year, reaching 5.22 million tons.
Market commentary linked the shift in India's crude slate to changing supplier patterns. "The increase in imports has been largely driven by the return of Middle Eastern barrels and lower Russian volumes, reflecting a normalization of India’s crude slate as Gulf supply availability recovers," said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.
Trade-source data released on Thursday indicated that Russian oil shipments to India fell 13.7% from August, to about 1.8 million barrels per day in September. That level represented approximately one-third of India’s total Russian-origin purchases for the month.
Domestic demand metrics also moved higher in September. Earlier data showed India’s fuel consumption rose 3.9% from August to 19.26 million metric tons, reflecting greater domestic fuel use during the month.
On specific product lines, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports increased to 1.40 million tons in September from 1.30 million tons in August. Conversely, fuel oil imports collapsed nearly 99% year-on-year to 0.01 million tons from 0.69 million tons a year earlier.
Context and implications
- The monthly increase in crude imports coincided with a relative return of Gulf barrels, changing the mix away from elevated Russian volumes seen earlier.
- Refined product flows shifted as imports fell on a yearly basis while exports increased, indicating different supply and demand dynamics for refined fuels.
- Fuel consumption growth suggests heightened domestic demand during September, which can influence refinery run rates and product trade balances.
Data limitations prevent drawing conclusions beyond the reported figures and statements. The government statistics and trade-source numbers cited provide a snapshot for the month of September but do not project future flows.