Commodities October 9, 2026 01:08 PM

Colombian Coffee Output Falls 15% as Weather and Yields Weigh on Crop

National Coffee Federation data show declines in annual production and exports amid uneven monthly performance

By Jordan Park
Share
Twitter Reddit Facebook LinkedIn

Colombia's coffee harvest for the 2025/26 crop year dropped 15% to 12.65 million 60-kilogram bags from 14.87 million the prior year, the National Coffee Federation reported. The federation attributed the fall to adverse weather and reduced yields. While September saw month-on-month gains in both production and exports, year-to-date figures through September point to persistent weakness.

Colombian Coffee Output Falls 15% as Weather and Yields Weigh on Crop
Summarize with
ChatGPT Perplexity Claude Grok Gemini

Key Points

  • Annual production for the 2025/26 coffee year fell 15% to 12.65 million 60-kg bags, down from 14.87 million the prior year - impacts agriculture and commodity markets.
  • September showed month-on-month gains: production rose 6% to 1.215 million bags and exports increased 9% to 1.17 million bags - relevant to exporters and trade flows.
  • Year-to-date production through September 2026 was down 10% to 8.95 million bags and full-year exports fell 12% to 11.78 million bags - affecting supply dynamics for domestic and international markets.

Colombia's coffee sector recorded a notable contraction in the 2025/26 crop year, with total production falling 15% to 12.65 million 60-kilogram bags from 14.87 million in the preceding year, according to figures published by the National Coffee Federation. The federation highlighted adverse weather conditions and lower yields as the primary factors behind the reduced harvest.

Despite the annual decline, September delivered some brighter monthly outcomes. Production in that month rose 6% to 1.215 million bags compared with the same month in the prior year, and exports in September increased 9% to 1.17 million bags. Those monthly improvements, however, did not offset broader reductions across the year.

Measured on a calendar-year basis through September 2026, coffee production was down 10% at 8.95 million bags versus 9.97 million in the same period of 2025. Over the full 2025/26 crop year, exports declined 12%, falling to 11.78 million bags.

The National Coffee Federation itself accounted for 2.54 million bags exported in the 2025/26 crop year, representing 21.5% of national exports, up from 19.8% in the previous cycle. The data show that while the federation's share of exports increased, total export volumes from the country contracted.

Trade flows also included imports and domestic demand. Imports reached 1.61 million bags over the 12-month period, while annual domestic consumption totaled 2.32 million bags, according to the same federation data.

The picture painted by the federation's statistics is one of mixed dynamics: on a monthly basis there were pockets of recovery in September, but the larger crop-year and year-to-date metrics point to weaker output and lower shipments overall. The federation attributed the principal drivers of the crop-year decline to weather-related impacts and reduced per-plant yields.


Data source: National Coffee Federation data as reported by the federation.

Risks

  • Adverse weather conditions were cited as a cause of the crop-year decline - a continued weather risk could further affect agricultural output and commodity prices.
  • Lower yields contributed to the reduced harvest - persistent yield pressures may strain grower incomes and export volumes, impacting the agricultural and trade sectors.
  • Contraction in overall exports despite a larger federation share introduces uncertainty for export revenue streams and logistics-dependent businesses.

More from Commodities

Gold stalls at 5-hour resistance near $4,245 as momentum and long-term trend clash Oct 12, 2026 Oil retreats as US-Russia diesel deal and Mideast violence push markets in different directions Oct 11, 2026 Gold Inches Up Near $4,207 as Market Weighs Energy Ceasefire Claim Against Mideast Violence Oct 11, 2026 Oil retreats after Trump announces energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine Oct 11, 2026 Saudi organisers confirm major energy and investment gatherings will proceed despite deadly airport attack Oct 11, 2026