Summary
UBS now expects Samsung Electronics to reach market share parity with SK Hynix in the HBM bit market by 2027, driven by stronger-than-expected Samsung shipments and capex pull-ins. The bank adjusted its company-level HBM shipment forecasts and raised its view of total HBM end demand and average selling prices, citing robust demand for AI-related chips and accelerating server procurement.
Shipment revisions and company outlooks
UBS maintained its Samsung HBM shipment projection for 2026 at 9.7 billion gigabits, which represents 124% year-on-year growth. For 2027 the bank increased its estimate to 23.0 billion gigabits, up 137% year-on-year and higher than its prior forecast of 20.3 billion gigabits. The analysts attributed the upward revision in large part to recent capital expenditure pull-ins by Samsung that support a faster ramp in HBM output.
By contrast, UBS trimmed its SK Hynix HBM shipment forecasts. The bank lowered the 2026 estimate to 17.7 billion gigabits from a prior 18.4 billion gigabits, and reduced the 2027 estimate to 23.1 billion gigabits from 24.7 billion gigabits. UBS said the downgrade largely reflects SK Hynix allocating more capacity to DDR5 and LPDDR5X segments in response to ongoing customer demand for those products.
Market share and competitive positioning
With the revised numbers, UBS projects that Samsung and SK Hynix would each account for roughly 40% of the HBM bit market in 2027, leaving Micron with the remaining 20% share. "Samsung could reach market share parity for HBM with SK Hynix by 2027E," analysts led by Nicolas Gaudois said in a note.
End-demand, pricing and broader memory market dynamics
UBS raised its forecast for total HBM end demand to 32.9 billion gigabits for 2026, an increase of 88% year-on-year, and to 58.0 billion gigabits for 2027, up 76% year-on-year. The bank identified higher assumptions for Google TPU unit procurement as the main driver behind the upward revision to aggregate HBM demand.
The bank also flagged a sharp pricing upswing across the broader memory market tied to accelerating server procurement. UBS now expects server DDR contract prices to climb nearly 60% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2026, versus a previous estimate of 37%, with contract prices possibly reaching $1.95 per gigabit. NAND flash contract pricing is likewise projected to rise about 60% quarter-on-quarter in the same period.
Nvidia assumption changes and supply considerations
On product configuration, UBS adjusted its assumptions for Nvidia's next-generation Rubin Ultra platform, now modeling 768 gigabytes of HBM4E in a 12-high stack, down from a prior assumption of 1 terabyte using a 16-high stack. The analysts noted the picture remains fluid and said the change could reflect Nvidia "pre-empting possible supply constraints at the DRAM die level" as well as yield challenges associated with higher-stack designs.
Pricing assumptions
Reflecting tighter industry dynamics, UBS raised its HBM average selling price assumptions. The bank now forecasts a 30% year-on-year increase for HBM4 and HBM3E in 2027, a clear shift from its earlier assumption of flat pricing for those products.
Implications for stakeholders
These revisions change the near-term competitive and pricing landscape for memory suppliers and for customers procuring large-scale AI compute resources. The updated forecasts influence expectations for revenue and capacity planning across the memory supply chain, including chips used in servers and AI accelerators.
Note: UBS analysts highlighted recent customer-driven demand trends and supplier capacity allocations as the basis for the forecast adjustments. The situation was described as fluid, particularly around supply constraints and stack-yield considerations for next-generation HBM configurations.