Stock Markets April 30, 2026 09:56 PM

SEC Approves Nasdaq MRX Proposal to List Binary Index-Linked Prediction Options

Cash-settled, all-or-nothing contracts tied to the Nasdaq-100 and its Micro version gain regulatory clearance

By Caleb Monroe AAPL NVDA INTC
SEC Approves Nasdaq MRX Proposal to List Binary Index-Linked Prediction Options
AAPL NVDA INTC

On April 30 the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission granted approval for Nasdaq MRX to list and trade a new class of cash-settled binary options tied to the Nasdaq-100 index and the Nasdaq-100 Micro index. The contracts - termed Outcome-Related Options (OROs) - deliver a fixed $100 payout if they expire in the money and are intended to expand prediction market offerings within regulated U.S. options venues.

Key Points

  • The SEC granted accelerated approval for Nasdaq MRX to list cash-settled binary options tied to the Nasdaq-100 and Nasdaq-100 Micro indexes.
  • These binary contracts pay a fixed $100 settlement amount if they expire in the money, representing an all-or-nothing outcome structure.
  • Other exchanges, including Cboe Global Markets, are advancing similar outcome-style contracts but require their own regulatory approvals.

April 30 - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday approved a Nasdaq filing that will allow Nasdaq MRX to list and trade a new category of prediction-style options tied to a major benchmark index, according to the commission's order.

The products in question are cash-settled binary options that deliver a set payoff at expiration depending on whether the linked index finishes above or below a pre-specified level. The SEC noted that these contracts would have a "fixed, all-or-nothing exercise settlement amount" of $100 if they expire in the money.

Nasdaq MRX, an electronic U.S. options exchange operated by Nasdaq, plans to initially list options tied to the Nasdaq-100 index and the Nasdaq-100 Micro index. The Nasdaq-100 tracks 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, including Apple, Nvidia and Intel. The Nasdaq-100 Micro index represents 1/100th of the full Nasdaq-100 value.

In its order the commission granted accelerated approval to Nasdaq's March application, finding the proposal "consistent with the requirements of the act" and stating it did not raise new regulatory concerns. The approval clears the way for the exchange to begin offering these outcome-focused contracts under the listing terms it proposed.

A Nasdaq spokesperson said, "We welcome the SEC's approval of Nasdaq MRX's proposal to list and trade Outcome-Related Options (OROs) tied to the Nasdaq-100 Index."

Other market operators are also preparing similar products. Cboe Global Markets, a prominent options exchange operator, is pursuing its own "all-or-none" styled contracts linked to financial and economic events and is aiming for a second-quarter launch, subject to regulatory approvals.

The move reflects broader interest among firms in entering regulated prediction market formats, which proponents say can open new revenue channels and provide market insights by letting participants take positions on real-world outcomes within an exchange structure.


What this means for markets

  • Regulated options venues are expanding their product sets to include binary, outcome-based contracts.
  • The Nasdaq-100 and its Micro counterpart will serve as the initial underlying benchmarks for these listed contracts.
  • Other exchanges are pursuing comparable offerings, though their launches remain subject to regulatory clearance.

Risks

  • Other planned products from rival exchanges are subject to regulatory approvals, creating uncertainty about timing and market competition - this affects options exchanges and trading venues.
  • Market acceptance and the development of these prediction-style contracts as a new revenue source remain uncertain, which could influence liquidity and pricing dynamics in the options market.
  • Although the SEC did not identify new regulatory concerns in this filing, the broader regulatory treatment and oversight of prediction-style products could evolve, affecting issuers and participants in derivative and prediction markets.

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