Summary
Macquarie's research team says forthcoming Federal budget proposals to alter the capital gains tax discount and tighten negative gearing rules could exert downward pressure on Australian home prices and prove a relative negative for domestic banks. The firm underlined these risks in a note published on Friday and kept Underperform recommendations on several listed lenders.
Banks and the housing transmission channel
Analysts at Macquarie highlighted that cuts to the current CGT discount and restrictions on claiming rental losses would compound the cooling effect already seen from Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes. The house price slowdown that began in late 2025 is expected to persist, according to the firm, as further interest rate increases combine with tax policy changes.
Macquarie maintained Underperform ratings on Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA), Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX:WBC), Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (ASX:BEN) and Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ), reflecting their view that these banks are relatively expensive and vulnerable to a weaker housing market.
Details of the proposed tax measures
The firm outlined possible changes that have been discussed for the Federal budget. Those include cutting the individuals and trusts CGT discount from the current 50% to alternative levels of 33%, 25% or zero. Should the discount be removed entirely, Macquarie said the system would likely revert toward the earlier approach in which an asset's cost base is adjusted for inflation.
On negative gearing, the note suggested property investors might face limits on the number of properties for which rental losses can be claimed - possibly restricted to one or two holdings - and that new purchases eligible for the rules could be confined to newly constructed homes.
Estimated market effects
Macquarie's Economics Team estimated that a reduction in the CGT discount could lower house prices by roughly 1% to 2%. The firm added that any limits on negative gearing would further intensify the downside pressure on values. These impacts are seen as being additive to the effects of higher interest rates.
For equities, Macquarie judged the direct effect of CGT changes to be modest, with the larger channel of influence running indirectly through the property market. The note emphasized the importance of the domestic superannuation sector - cited as a $4.5 trillion pool of capital and a major participant in Australian equities - and stated the firm does not expect the superannuation sector's 33% CGT discount to change.
Winners and defensive positioning
The analysts suggested that, if CGT concessions are reduced, income-producing investments could become relatively more attractive. They identified a set of defensive names with projected FY27 gross yields above 5%: Atlas Arteria (ASX:ALX), Downer EDI (ASX:DBI), APA Group (ASX:APA), AGL Energy (ASX:AGL), Telstra (ASX:TLS) and Coles Group (ASX:COL).
Implications
Macquarie's view ties together fiscal policy uncertainty and monetary tightening as a combined drag on housing and, through that channel, on bank earnings and valuations. At the same time, the firm points to higher-yielding defensive equity exposure as a potential relative beneficiary if income becomes relatively more attractive following tax changes.