Overview
Jefferies has moved Kuehne+Nagel into a buy rating from hold and lifted its one-year price objective to CHF220, up from CHF190. That new target sits above the stock's most recent close at CHF172, implying approximately 28% upside from that level.
Driver of the upgrade
The broker highlights potential cost savings from artificial intelligence as a primary catalyst for the upgrade, saying those efficiency gains do not appear to be factored into current consensus forecasts. Jefferies quantifies modeled cost reductions at CHF200 million and has adjusted its earnings trajectory accordingly.
Forecasts and valuation
Jefferies now projects Kuehne+Nagel's EBIT to reach CHF1.37 billion in 2026, CHF1.47 billion in 2027 and CHF1.75 billion in 2028. The 2028 EBIT estimate sits about 10% above Bloomberg consensus, according to the broker. The price target is derived using a multiple of 21 times estimated 2027 EV/EBIT.
On a per-share basis, Jefferies models earnings of CHF8.58 in 2026, CHF9.05 in 2027 and CHF10.84 in 2028, corresponding to year-on-year EPS growth of 16% in 2026, 5% in 2027 and 20% in 2028. Revenue is forecast at CHF27.8 billion in 2026 and to rise to CHF30.6 billion by 2028.
Balance sheet and returns
The broker expects net debt to decline substantially, falling to CHF12 million by 2028 from CHF738 million in 2025. Free cash flow yield is projected at 5.3% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2028. Jefferies also said it raised its 2026-2028 EBIT forecasts by between 3% and 6% versus its prior estimates.
Market multiples
Based on Jefferies' figures, the stock is trading at 18 times 2026 EV/EBIT and about 20 times price-to-earnings using the projected earnings. The broker's valuation works back to the CHF220 target using a 21-times multiple on 2027 estimated EV/EBIT.
Company commentary and timing
Management indicated on the first-quarter earnings call that it plans to present more tangible figures at first-half results in July and noted the company expects "material traction from ’27 onward". Jefferies, however, said it does not assume meaningful contribution from AI-driven cost savings in its 2027 estimates.
Key forecast highlights
- Modeled cost savings from AI: CHF200 million.
- EBIT: CHF1.37 billion (2026), CHF1.47 billion (2027), CHF1.75 billion (2028).
- EPS: CHF8.58 (2026), CHF9.05 (2027), CHF10.84 (2028).
- Revenue: CHF27.8 billion (2026) to CHF30.6 billion (2028).
- Net debt: CHF738 million (2025) to CHF12 million (2028).
Implications
Jefferies' upgrade reflects a valuation re-rate driven by anticipated efficiency gains from AI that the broker views as underappreciated by the market. The firm incorporated those modeled savings into its forecasts and raised both EBIT and EPS projections for the 2026-2028 period.
Note: This article reports Jefferies' revised rating, target and financial projections without adding interpretation beyond the figures and statements provided.