Egypt's annual urban consumer inflation rate slowed to 14.9% in April, down from 15.2% in March, official data from CAPMAS showed on Wednesday. The agency also reported that prices rose 1.1% from March to April on a month-on-month basis.
Food and beverage prices displayed mixed dynamics. CAPMAS recorded a 0.7% decline in that category from March to April, while prices for food and beverages were 6.7% higher compared with April of the prior year.
A poll of 14 analysts had pointed to a different trajectory, forecasting that annual inflation would climb to 15.9% in April. Those analysts cited several factors that they said were pressuring inflation at the start of the month: an increase in electricity prices, a weakening of the currency and a rise in commodity costs, with poultry singled out as a particular driver.
Annual inflation has fallen substantially from a peak of 38% recorded in September 2023. That decline has been supported in part by an $8-billion financial assistance package concluded with the International Monetary Fund in March 2024, according to the figures released.
Looking ahead, the timing of recent policy actions could lift inflation in the near term. On May 3, authorities announced higher natural gas prices for several energy-intensive industries, a move noted in the data as a potential upward pressure on May inflation.
The April figures present a nuanced picture: overall headline inflation eased year on year, but monthly price movements and policy changes in energy and utilities highlight potential volatility entering May. Food and beverage prices fell in the latest month yet remain elevated year on year, an important consideration for household purchasing power and consumer-facing sectors.
Investors and market participants tracking inflation, currency developments and policy adjustments will likely weigh the impact of recent energy price adjustments and any continued currency movements when assessing near-term inflation risks.